Bitcoin hasn’t just fallen in price — it has fractured sentiment. In a matter of weeks, the market has shifted from confident trend-followers to two sharply opposed camps: those bracing for further collapse and those convinced that this is exactly how a long-term bottom begins.
- Blockchain data shows short-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing record unrealized losses.
- Analysts are divided, with predictions ranging from a drop below $75K to a possible surge toward $110K in 2025.
- Institutional selling is heavy, but increasing buyer absorption on major exchanges hints at early stabilization.
The strongest evidence of emotional strain isn’t on the charts but on the blockchain itself. On-chain data shows that short-term holders are experiencing the worst unrealized losses in Bitcoin’s history, with roughly 99% of recently acquired coins underwater. That breaks every prior stress event — including the COVID crash and the FTX implosion — which many traders once thought were “the ultimate capitulations.”
Capitulation Shows Up on the Blockchain Before It Shows Up in Price
Analysts note that extreme capitulation among short-term wallets has historically aligned with major turning points. Chris Beamish pointed to net unrealized profit/loss data now plunging far below levels associated with all previous cycle lows, describing it as a moment when confidence evaporates almost instantaneously.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argues that every bottom starts with a phase like this — brutal, chaotic, and emotional — long before the price stabilizes.
Only After the Data Came the Predictions
Once the severity of the sell-off became visible, commentary from large-audience voices arrived.
John Deaton said that a drop below $75,000 would not surprise him, but he framed it not as a bearish call — instead as something consistent with how Bitcoin behaves before a major reversal. If selling pressure cools and confidence returns, Deaton thinks $110,000 before the end of 2025 is within reach.
Anthony Pompliano shared the same sentiment from a psychological angle, pointing out that the Fear & Greed Index has now plunged to its lowest reading in Bitcoin’s history. He noted that long-term believers often become most excited when fear appears “irrationally high.”
The Missing Ingredient: Buyers Who Can Absorb Panic
Where the situation diverges from previous cycles is institutional flow.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted that institutional selling now accounts for the highest share of Coinbase volume ever recorded, calling it the most aggressive liquidation wave in the exchange’s history.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that if this kind of selling continues, price technically has space to slide toward $58,000 before finding equilibrium.
At the same time, signs of stabilization are starting to appear under the surface: the largest one-hour trading volume on Binance since October suggests that deep-pocket buyers have started absorbing forced sales for the first time in weeks.
Where the Market Stands Now
Bitcoin’s next major move may depend less on opinion and more on which group dries up first:
• If sellers exhaust, the recovery thesis gains probability.
• If buyers wait, capitulation could run further.
For now, neither side has taken control — and that uncertainty is exactly what is defining the moment.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/historic-capitulation-signals-possible-bitcoin-bottom-but-analysts-warn-more-volatility-ahead/
