Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Dip Into High $80Ks but Says $80K “Will Hold”

Bitcoin may continue to trade choppily below $90,000 in the days ahead, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who said he expects at least one more push into the “low $80Ks” before the market finds firmer footing.

However, despite the volatility, Hayes believes the $80,000 level will hold, supported by improving dollar liquidity and shifting macro signals.

In a post on X, Hayes pointed to “minor improvements in $ liquidity”, noting two key developments:

• the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program is expected to stop on December 1,
• and U.S. banks increased lending in November, easing some of the liquidity pressure that weighed on risk assets through early Q4.

“With QT ending and bank lending ticking up, we may get some breathing room,” Hayes wrote. He added that while Bitcoin could see another dip into the low $80Ks, he expects the level to hold and is considering “nibbling” at current levels — though he plans to “leave the bazooka until the new year,” signalling a cautious approach to deploying larger capital.

ETF Inflows Return, Retail Selling Cools

Market analysts also see signs that Bitcoin’s recent price action may be more than just technical noise. Jamie Elkaleh, CMO at Bitget Wallet, said over the weekend that a broader stabilization pattern may be forming underneath the volatility.

“Elkaleh noted that ETF inflows are returning, retail selling pressure is cooling, and Ethereum is regaining key ground — all despite an uncertain macro backdrop.”

According to Elkaleh, the rebound in Bitcoin and major altcoins “suggests early signs of stabilization rather than a brief technical bounce.” She pointed to historical seasonality, noting that November is typically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, and added that easing retail capitulation often coincides with local bottom formation.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold the mid-$80K range in the face of interest-rate uncertainty “reflects underlying resilience,” Elkaleh said, supported by renewed institutional activity — including MicroStrategy’s continued accumulation and net inflows into both BTC and ETH ETFs late last week after a stretch of persistent outflows.

Ethereum Reclaims Momentum

Elkaleh also highlighted Ethereum’s recovery above the $2,800 level, arguing that anticipation around upgrades such as Fusaka is reinforcing confidence in Ethereum’s long-term positioning across DeFi, scaling, and network infrastructure.

“Volatility is likely to persist,” she said, “but the combination of reduced retail selling, returning institutional inflows, and strong network development suggests this recovery has credible footing.”

Outlook: Stabilization With Volatility

Both Hayes and Elkaleh agree: while Bitcoin may remain volatile into December, structural signals — improved liquidity, ETF inflows, and technical resets — point to gradual stabilization, not a fleeting bounce.