Dogecoin rises on ETF anticipation and market optimism

Dogecoin climbs ahead of Grayscale ETF launch, with analysts citing meme enthusiasm and institutional inflows as key price drivers amid technical uncertainty.

Dogecoin began the week with gains, according to market data, with the increase attributed to anticipation surrounding the upcoming Grayscale dogecoin exchange-traded fund scheduled to launch on the New York Stock Exchange.

The recently launched Rex-Osprey fund recorded higher-than-average first-day trading volume in September, according to trading data. Market observers noted that short-term price movements remain possible depending on fund inflows.

The positive market sentiment appeared to offset concerns following reports that the Department of Government Efficiency has been disbanded. The department and the cryptocurrency shared a coincidental connection through their names, and both maintained associations with entrepreneur Elon Musk, a prominent supporter of Dogecoin.

Financial analysis platform Finbold consulted OpenAI’s ChatGPT-5 artificial intelligence model to generate price forecasts for Dogecoin by the end of 2025, considering ongoing political developments and institutional investment activity.

The AI model placed Dogecoin’s (DOGE) most probable year-end 2025 price within a moderate range, according to the analysis. The base-case scenario assumes the broader cryptocurrency market will experience a moderate rally in the coming weeks, with the model indicating that Dogecoin performance depends on overall industry strength rather than isolated hype-driven momentum.

A stronger cryptocurrency market cycle combined with meme-driven enthusiasm could push the token toward a higher price range, according to the AI forecast. Conversely, reduced institutional demand, stagnant ETF performance, and a broader cryptocurrency downturn could result in significantly lower prices, the model indicated.

Dogecoin traded modestly higher ahead of the Grayscale ETF launch, which will provide retail investors access to dogecoin exposure. Market participants view the ETF as a step toward legitimizing the asset, similar to reactions to the Rex-Osprey fund launch in September.

ETF analyst Nate Geraci described the approval as a “monumental crypto regulatory shift” in written comments. “Some (many) might laugh, but I actually view this as a highly symbolic launch. IMO, best example of monumental crypto regulatory shift over past yr,” Geraci stated.

Technical indicators present a mixed outlook, according to market analysis. Dogecoin bounced from a key Fibonacci retracement level, supported by a Relative Strength Index reading approaching oversold territory. However, the token continues trading below both short-term and long-term simple moving averages, while the MACD histogram indicates negative momentum.

The current rally appears driven primarily by ETF-related optimism, though technical indicators suggest uncertainty regarding sustained momentum, according to technical analysts.