Semien-Nimmo Swap, Challenge Trade Or Prelude To Bigger Deal For Mets?

The free agent marketplace has been quiet in the early stages of the MLB offseason, but a fairly big one-for-one trade came out of nowhere on Sunday when the Texas Rangers sent 2B Marcus Semien to the New York Mets for OF Brandon Nimmo.

It’s an unusual, old school throwback trade in a way. Most deals these days match up a buyer with a seller, a rich team with a poor or at least less rich team, and an established player with minor league prospects or at least a younger, less expensive major leaguer.

This one resembles the “challenge” trade of yesteryear, the Milt Pappas-Lou Brock prototype, established big leaguer for established big leaguer at comparable stages in their respective careers. In this case, even the (large) salaries are in the same ballpark. Semien is due $72 million over the next three years, Nimmo $102.5 million over the next five. The Mets are picking up $5 million of the remaining amount due to Nimmo, but that doesn’t materially change the financial calculus of this deal. The Mets are adding a little more to their competitive balance tax payroll over the next three years, while the Rangers are reducing theirs over the same stretch while adding two extra years of commitment.

But what about the baseball aspect of the deal? Semien once hit 45 homers in a season – heck, 2021 wasn’t all that long ago. Fun fact – he has finished third in the MVP voting three times. Those would be the only three times he received any votes at all. He topped 7.0 WAR all three of those seasons by combining exceptional defense with extreme durability and just-enough, dead-pull, down-the-line home run power.

The power has been fading away a bit, and even his ironman status took a hit last season when he was sidelined by a foot injury late in the season. He’s now 35, and while his defense remains strong, it’s now at the forefront of his game, not just a complementary piece. He is considered to be a strong, positive veteran presence in the clubhouse. Still, I don’t think I would pay $24 million per year for his next three seasons.

Then there’s Nimmo. Like Semien, he’ll be 37 in the last year of his current contract, but unlike him, the new Ranger still has his age 33-34 seasons ahead of him. I would place Nimmo in the same general category of player as Semien, the high floor, moderate ceiling type. I do think that moving forward that I prefer both Nimmo’s ceiling and floor, at least offensively. The lefty hitter strikes the ball better than Semien and isn’t as dependent on extreme pulling for his power output.

Defensively, however, he doesn’t bring as much to the table. He’s morphed from an average defensive CF to an average defensive LF in a relatively short period of time, and that’s not an insiginificant point. Overall, however, I believe that the Rangers got the better player, at a lower price per annum in this deal, though they are adding two years of commitment.

And that’s odd in a way, as the Mets are supposedly are the surefire contender here, while the Rangers might be looking to reset (not fully rebuild), in a way. So what are the Mets up to here?

They are now loaded in the infield, and some might argue overloaded. 1B Pete Alonso is a high-profile free agent who might yet again find his way back to Queens, and 3Bs Mark Vientos and Brett Baty are still in the fold, as is 2B Jeff McNeil, who also dabbles in the outfield. Might moving Nimmo put high-end free agent OFs like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger squarely in the Mets’ crosshairs? Recent history tells us that money is no object to Mets’ owner Steve Cohen. Perhaps they could again opt for the trade market to replace Nimmo, acquiring someone like the Red Sox’ Jarren Duran.

But at this point one should take a step back and ask what Cohen’s free-spending ways have accomplished to this point. While the club’s on-field performance has generally been good since his arrival, they have yet to appear in a World Series, and outside of RF Juan Soto (who is only one year into his mega-deal) and SS Francisco Lindor, his investments haven’t yielded great returns. Their starting pitching expenditures in particular have not yielded fruit, and were directly responsible for their absence from the playoffs in 2025. No matter how they choose to spend their dollars this offseason, the Mets need to inject high-upside youth to their lineup and rotation over the next couple of seasons to supplement their veteran nucleus – not trade their best prospects for short-term fixes.

One could argue that the Mets will be the single most interesting team to watch this offseason, and this trade makes that an even more likely prospect. Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz are on the free market, and the Mets are believed to be interested in bringing both back. The club has been connected to nearly every top-of-the-market free agent position player, and should also be lurking on starting pitchers like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez. Their farm system, featuring young starters Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, OF Carson Benge and SS Jett Williams, is one of baseball’s best.

There are a number of permutations of moves that could put the Mets over the top and make them a perennial October threat. But there are even more that could land them right where they are now – a perennial high-cost bridesmaid, with an ever-mounting pile of dead money. This is one huge offseason for the Mets, Cohen and team President David Stearns.