Bitcoin's Thanksgiving Price History: 12-Year Performance Analysis

[Market Analysis] Bitcoin's price trajectory over twelve Thanksgiving holidays reveals dramatic volatility alongside remarkable long-term appreciation. From $1,100 in 2013 to $91,268 in 2025, Bitcoin has delivered extraordinary returns despite experiencing several major drawdowns. This historical price data provides insights into cryptocurrency market cycles, investor sentiment patterns, and the digital asset's evolution as an investment vehicle.

Historical Price Overview

Complete Thanksgiving Record

The twelve-year Thanksgiving price history demonstrates Bitcoin's evolution from niche digital asset to mainstream investment. The 2013 starting point of $1,100 represented early adoption phase pricing, while 2025's $91,268 reflects institutional acceptance and widespread recognition.

Year-over-year performance shows eight positive Thanksgiving periods marked green versus four negative periods marked red. This 67% win rate indicates generally upward trajectory with periodic corrections. The positive-to-negative ratio suggests Bitcoin's long-term appreciation trend despite cyclical volatility.

Peak Thanksgiving pricing occurred in 2024 at $93,966, representing an all-time high for the holiday measurement period. The 2024 peak preceded 2025's slight decline to $91,268, indicating recent consolidation following strong appreciation.

Cumulative Returns

From 2013's $1,100 baseline to 2025's $91,268, Bitcoin delivered approximately 8,200% cumulative returns over twelve years. This extraordinary appreciation translates to roughly 46% compound annual growth rate, significantly exceeding traditional asset classes.

The return profile demonstrates Bitcoin's asymmetric upside potential alongside substantial volatility. Investors maintaining positions through complete cycles captured massive gains despite enduring severe drawdowns.

Thanksgiving-to-Thanksgiving measurement provides annual snapshot eliminating intra-year volatility. Holiday timing creates consistent comparison point revealing broader trends obscured by daily price fluctuations.

Cyclical Patterns

Four-Year Cycles

Bitcoin exhibits pronounced four-year cycles correlating with halving events that reduce mining rewards. Supply reduction events historically precede major bull markets as decreased issuance meets stable or growing demand.

The 2013-2017 cycle showed progression from $1,100 to $8,200 peak before 2018's correction to $4,300. This pattern established template of multi-year appreciation followed by significant retracement.

The 2017-2021 cycle demonstrated similar dynamics with $8,200 growing to $59,100 before 2022's decline to $16,555. Cyclical behavior repeated with larger absolute numbers reflecting market maturation.

The 2021-2025 period shows recovery from $16,555 to $91,268 range, suggesting current position within ongoing cycle. Pattern consistency suggests structural market dynamics driving repeated behavior.

Bull and Bear Markets

Bull market years 2013, 2016-2017, 2019-2021, and 2023-2024 show consistent appreciation reflecting positive sentiment and capital inflows. Green years cluster around halving events and periods of institutional adoption.

Bear market years 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 represent correction phases following unsustainable rallies. Red years typically feature deleveraging, capitulation, and pessimistic sentiment resetting valuations.

The 2025 slight decline from 2024's peak suggests potential cycle maturation or consolidation. Minor retracement may indicate healthy profit-taking rather than bear market initiation.

Recovery Patterns

Post-correction recoveries demonstrate Bitcoin's resilience and long-term uptrend. Following each bear market, Bitcoin eventually exceeded previous peaks establishing new all-time highs.

The 2014-2015 correction from $1,100 to $359 required until 2016 to begin recovery, reaching $738. Full recovery to new highs occurred in 2017, demonstrating multi-year healing timeframes.

The 2022 bottom of $16,555 recovered to $37,367 by 2023, then accelerated to $93,966 in 2024. Faster recovery compared to previous cycles suggests improving market maturity and liquidity.

Major Drawdowns

2014-2015 Decline

Bitcoin's first major Thanksgiving-to-Thanksgiving decline saw prices fall from $1,100 in 2013 to $376 in 2014, representing 66% decrease. The correction continued into 2015 reaching $359, marking cumulative 67% decline from peak.

The 2014-2015 bear market followed Mt. Gox exchange collapse and early regulatory uncertainties. Exchange failures and security concerns undermined confidence triggering sustained selloff.

Recovery from 2015 lows required patience as 2016's $738 still represented 33% below 2013 levels. Full recovery didn't occur until 2017's rally to $8,200, demonstrating extended cycle timeframes.

2018 Correction

The 2018 Thanksgiving price of $4,300 marked 48% decline from 2017's $8,200. This correction followed late-2017 peak near $20,000, with Thanksgiving capturing mid-correction pricing.

The 2018 bear market reflected ICO bubble deflation and regulatory crackdowns globally. Speculative excess unwinding combined with enforcement actions created sustained negative pressure.

Recovery began in 2019 with Thanksgiving price reaching $7,400, though full peak recovery required additional years. The $7,400 level represented 72% rebound from 2018 lows demonstrating recovery momentum.

2022 Crash

The 2022 Thanksgiving price of $16,555 represented 72% decline from 2021's $59,100 peak. This severe correction ranked among Bitcoin's largest percentage drawdowns in holiday measurement history.

The 2022 crash stemmed from Federal Reserve rate increases, Terra/Luna collapse, and FTX exchange bankruptcy. Multiple negative catalysts compounded creating exceptional selling pressure.

Remarkably, recovery to $37,367 by 2023 Thanksgiving demonstrated resilience. The 126% rebound within one year showcased Bitcoin's ability to recover from severe corrections.

Major Rallies

2017 Breakthrough

The 2016-2017 period saw Bitcoin surge from $738 to $8,200, representing 1,011% Thanksgiving-to-Thanksgiving appreciation. This explosive rally brought Bitcoin into mainstream consciousness.

The 2017 rally reflected growing institutional interest, futures market launches, and retail FOMO. Media coverage amplified as Bitcoin approached $20,000 peak in December 2017.

Thanksgiving 2017's $8,200 captured rally mid-point with additional gains following before eventual correction. The breakout year established Bitcoin as serious investment asset beyond niche technology.

2020-2021 Surge

The 2020-2021 period delivered 246% appreciation from $17,100 to $59,100. This rally reflected institutional adoption, corporate treasury allocations, and pandemic-era monetary stimulus.

Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla added Bitcoin to balance sheets validating corporate treasury use case. Institutional participation provided credibility encouraging additional capital allocation.

Thanksgiving 2021's $59,100 represented near all-time high pricing with December 2021 peak around $69,000. The holiday measurement captured rally apex before subsequent correction.

2023-2024 Recovery

The 2023-2024 period showed 151% appreciation from $37,367 to $93,966. This powerful rally recovered all 2022 losses and established new all-time highs.

Spot Bitcoin ETF approvals drove 2024's strength as regulated products enabled mainstream investment access. BlackRock, Fidelity, and other major asset managers launching Bitcoin ETFs created enormous inflows.

Thanksgiving 2024's $93,966 exceeded all previous holiday measurements establishing new benchmark. The achievement demonstrated Bitcoin's resilience and continued adoption momentum.

Market Maturation Indicators

Volatility Evolution

Early-year volatility exceeded later periods as thin markets amplified price swings. The 2013-2015 period showed extreme percentage moves reflecting immature market structure.

Recent years demonstrate reduced volatility percentage-wise despite larger absolute price movements. The 2024-2025 period's modest 2.9% decline contrasts sharply with earlier multi-year corrections exceeding 50%.

Declining volatility suggests market maturation as liquidity improves and participant base broadens. Institutional involvement and derivatives markets dampen extreme price movements.

Institutional Adoption

Early Thanksgiving prices reflected primarily retail and enthusiast participation. Limited institutional involvement meant sentiment-driven volatility dominated price action.

Recent years show increasing institutional allocation through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and hedge funds. Professional participation provides stabilizing influence and deeper liquidity.

The 2023-2024 ETF-driven rally demonstrates institutional demand impact. Regulated products enabling pension and wealth manager access fundamentally changed market dynamics.

Regulatory Evolution

Early period operated in regulatory gray area with limited government oversight. Uncertainty around legal status contributed to volatility and periodic selloffs.

Recent years feature clearer regulatory frameworks reducing legal uncertainty. SEC engagement, exchange licensing, and court rulings provide operational clarity.

Spot ETF approvals represent regulatory milestone validating Bitcoin as legitimate investment. Official recognition enables broader participation previously restricted by compliance concerns.

Investment Performance Metrics

Annual Returns

Average Thanksgiving-to-Thanksgiving return across twelve years significantly outperformed traditional assets. Despite multiple negative years, positive performance magnitude exceeded losses.

Best single-year return occurred 2016-2017 with 1,011% appreciation. Worst single-year return was 2021-2022 with 72% decline demonstrating extreme range.

Median return calculation shows positive skew indicating typical appreciation exceeded typical decline. Asymmetric return profile rewards patient holders willing to endure volatility.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio considering returns versus volatility shows improving risk-adjusted performance over time. Early period volatility reduced returns per unit risk despite strong absolute gains.

Recent years demonstrate better risk-adjusted returns as volatility moderates while appreciation continues. Improved risk metrics attract institutional allocators evaluating portfolio fit.

Maximum drawdown analysis shows severe corrections testing investor resolve. Successful Bitcoin investment requires conviction withstanding 70%+ peak-to-trough declines.

Comparison to Traditional Assets

Bitcoin's twelve-year return dramatically exceeded stock market indices. S&P 500 roughly tripled while Bitcoin increased 80x over comparable period.

Gold provided modest appreciation of approximately 50% over twelve years significantly underperforming Bitcoin. Precious metal comparison highlights Bitcoin's superior returns despite volatility.

Bond returns lagged substantially as low interest rates compressed fixed income yields. Bitcoin's performance exceeded all major asset classes by wide margins.

Timing Considerations

Dollar-Cost Averaging

Systematic Thanksgiving-day purchases each year would have delivered exceptional returns despite buying at various cycle points. DCA strategy eliminates market timing reducing emotional decision-making.

Annual $1,000 investment at each Thanksgiving since 2013 would have accumulated significant Bitcoin at average cost far below current prices. Disciplined accumulation captures average pricing across cycles.

DCA performance demonstrates difficulty of timing markets versus consistent accumulation. Missing best purchase opportunities by waiting for perfect entry often costs more than overpaying occasionally.

Peak Buying Risk

Purchasing at Thanksgiving 2021's $59,100 peak resulted in immediate losses through 2022. Peak buyers required patience until 2024 recovery for profitability.

The 2021 peak buyer experience illustrates importance of time horizon. Multi-year patience eventually rewarded even poorly-timed entries.

Peak buying risk reduces with longer holding periods. Five-year minimum investment horizon generally produced profits regardless of entry timing.

Bottom Buying Opportunities

Purchasing at Thanksgiving 2015's $359 or 2022's $16,555 generated extraordinary returns. Bottom buying requires contrarian conviction when pessimism peaks.

Identifying bottoms in real-time proves extremely difficult as further declines always seem possible. Fear and negative sentiment create psychological barriers to buying.

Historical analysis shows major bottoms occurred when negative sentiment reached extremes. Contrarian indicators and technical oversold conditions signaled opportunities.

Cycle Position Analysis

Current Market Phase

The 2024-2025 period shows slight decline from peak suggesting potential cycle maturation. Minor retracement may indicate consolidation before further appreciation or correction beginning.

Post-halving year 2024 followed historical pattern of strong performance. The 2025 data point suggests continuation of positive cycle phase despite modest pullback.

Comparing current position to previous cycles suggests potential for further appreciation if patterns repeat. However, each cycle exhibits unique characteristics limiting predictive value.

Future Projections

Extrapolating historical growth rates suggests potential six-figure prices in coming years. Continued institutional adoption and supply scarcity support appreciation thesis.

However, past performance doesn't guarantee future results as market conditions evolve. Maturation, regulation, and competition create uncertainties about future trajectory.

Conservative estimates based on modest continued adoption still suggest substantial upside. Pessimistic scenarios require reversal of twelve-year trend undermining fundamental thesis.

Lessons from History

Volatility Acceptance

Bitcoin's Thanksgiving price history demonstrates extreme volatility as inherent characteristic. Successful investment requires accepting significant price fluctuations.

Emotional reactions to volatility undermine long-term returns. Panic selling during corrections crystallizes losses preventing participation in recoveries.

Viewing volatility as opportunity rather than threat enables advantageous positioning. Market inefficiencies during extreme fear create accumulation opportunities.

Long-Term Perspective

Short-term price movements matter less than multi-year trend direction. Focusing on Thanksgiving snapshots versus daily prices illustrates perspective benefits.

Patient capital vastly outperformed traders attempting to time markets. Buy-and-hold strategy captured full appreciation while trading incurred costs and errors.

Extending time horizons beyond single cycles enables riding through volatility. Five-to-ten year perspectives align with Bitcoin's adoption trajectory.

Cycle Awareness

Recognizing cyclical patterns informs positioning and expectations. Understanding typical cycle duration and magnitude helps maintain discipline.

Avoiding euphoria during peaks and despair during troughs requires cycle context. Historical precedent provides emotional anchor during extremes.

Cycle awareness suggests taking profits during euphoria and accumulating during capitulation. Contrarian positioning captures cycle benefits.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's twelve-year Thanksgiving price history from $1,100 to $91,268 demonstrates extraordinary appreciation alongside significant volatility. The 8,200% cumulative return vastly exceeded traditional assets despite four negative years among twelve measured periods.

Cyclical patterns reflecting four-year halving schedules created repeated boom-bust sequences. Understanding these cycles provides framework for expectations and strategic positioning. The 67% positive Thanksgiving rate indicates generally upward trajectory with periodic corrections.

Recent price action suggests market maturation as institutional adoption increases and regulatory clarity improves. While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, the consistent recovery pattern and long-term appreciation trend support optimistic outlook for patient, informed investors willing to accept Bitcoin's inherent volatility.