Bitcoin Stuck Below 93K While Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb To 87%

TLDR

• Bitcoin futures premium remains low at 4%, showing lack of strong bullish positioning.
• Put option volumes exceeded calls, suggesting caution among traders after a recent price pullback.
• ETF inflows added just $70 million in the week ending Nov 28, indicating stagnation.
• Fed rate cut odds rose to 87% after US job market weakness, boosting gold and stock markets.

Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim momentum as it hovers near $91,000, despite strong rallies in gold and US stocks driven by growing bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut by December 10. With 87% of traders expecting a policy shift, optimism surrounds liquidity support. Yet, weak ETF inflows, cautious derivatives activity, and speculation around corporate holdings keep Bitcoin’s breakout potential in check as investors watch the $90,000 level closely.

Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite Stock and Gold Gains

Bitcoin traded near $91,256 and failed to reclaim the $93,000 level, even as US equities and gold posted gains. The S&P 500 index is trading just 1% below its all-time high, while gold jumped 3.8% during the week. However, Bitcoin’s response has been limited.

Investors are watching Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support above $90,000. The broader optimism in financial markets has not translated into a strong Bitcoin rally, partly due to weak demand from institutional channels and caution in the derivatives market.

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise on Weak Job Data

Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have grown stronger. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that traders assign 87% odds to a rate cut on December 10, up from 71% a week earlier. This shift follows new US Labor Department data that showed continuing jobless claims rose to 1.96 million as of November 15.

As expectations for looser monetary policy increase, traditional assets like gold and stocks have rallied. Bitcoin, however, remains under pressure, as market participants wait for stronger confirmation from ETF flows and corporate interest.

Derivatives Market Shows Ongoing Caution

Despite easing macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin’s derivatives market continues to reflect cautious sentiment. The monthly futures premium remains at 4%, below the typical neutral range of 5% to 10%. This suggests limited appetite for leveraged long positions.

Additionally, the options market showed a stronger demand for put options over calls on recent trading days. Data from Deribit indicated that the put-to-call premium ratio remains above the neutral level of 1.3x. This reflects traders’ preference for downside protection amid ongoing uncertainty.

ETF Flows Slow and Corporate Moves Spark Speculation

Flows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have weakened. According to recent data, net ETF inflows totaled only $70 million for the week ending November 28. This stagnation reduces momentum that had previously supported price rallies.

No major corporate holders have added to their Bitcoin reserves in the past two weeks, according to CoinGlass. Moreover, speculation grew after a wallet linked to SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC to two new addresses. The company has not issued a statement, leaving room for speculation about whether a sale or custody change occurred.

Market Reacts to Political and Tech Developments

During the US holiday period, former President Donald Trump reaffirmed his plans for future tax cuts. He cited tariff revenues as a funding source, and the comments supported price gains in scarce assets. While gold and silver responded strongly, Bitcoin remained range-bound.

Meanwhile, easing concerns in the AI sector lifted tech stocks. Google’s new TPU chip helped boost Alphabet’s shares by 6.8% during the week. Despite this positive tech sentiment, Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks appears to be weakening.

Traders remain focused on whether Bitcoin can break and hold above $91,000. A sustained push above this level may depend on renewed ETF demand, less risk-averse derivative positioning, and increased central bank liquidity.

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