Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim $93,000 despite positive momentum in the US stock market and rising gold prices. With the S&P 500 trading just 1% below its all-time high, traders are evaluating what could spark sustainable bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
Key takeaways:
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Demand for BTC put (sell) options and stagnant ETF inflows kept momentum capped despite easing macroeconomic conditions.
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AI-driven tech relief has cut market stress, but BTC strength relies on holding $90k as investors bet on liquidity support amid softer job market data.
Bond market futures data from CME Group shows traders assigning 87% odds to an interest rate cut on Dec. 10, up from 71% the prior week.
Signs of weakness US the US job market prompted investors to expect a more expansionary monetary policy. The US Labor Department noted that continuing claims climbed to 1.96 million in the week ending Nov. 15.
Meanwhile, the sentiment in BTC derivatives was not significantly altered by the recent price weakness, yet demand for bullish positioning remains notably cautious.
Bitcoin futures annualized basis rate. Source: Laevitas.chBitcoin monthly futures held a 4% premium over spot markets on Saturday, unchanged from the previous week.
Under neutral conditions, this basis typically ranges from 5% to 10% to reflect carrying costs. The lack of appetite for leveraged long positions may indicate lingering concerns after Bitcoin’s 18% pullback over the past 30 days.
BTC options markets can help evaluate whether whales and market makers fear additional downside. Bearish phases are often marked by increased demand for put (sell) options.
Bitcoin options put-to-call premium volumes at Deribit, USD. Source: laevitas.chVolumes on put options far exceeded call (buy) instruments on Thursday and Friday, signaling elevated uncertainty. A more neutral market would require put-to-call premium volumes at 1.3x or below. While still well off the 5x peak level favoring downside protection seen on Nov. 21, overall sentiment in Bitcoin derivatives remains cautious.
Part of this hesitation stems from stagnant flows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), which added only $70 million in net assets during the week ending Nov. 28.
Additionally, none of the companies that use Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset have expanded their holdings over the past two weeks, according to CoinGlass data.
Top companies holding BTC reserves. Source: CoinGlassStrategy last added Bitcoin on Nov. 17. More concerningly, holdings attributed to SpaceX moved 1,163 BTC to two new addresses on Thursday, fueling speculation about a potential sale.
It remains unclear whether Elon Musk’s privately held aerospace company changed custodians, as no official statements have been issued.
Trump’s tax-cut plans boosted scarce assets
During the US holiday, President Donald Trump reiterated plans to substantially cut income taxes, citing revenue expected from import tariffs.
Investors grew more willing to take risks as it became clear that government debt would remain under heavy upward pressure, a backdrop typically supportive of scarce assets. Gold gained 3.8% during the week, while silver surged to a new all-time high.
Related: Robert Kiyosaki says cash crunch driving crash, stays bullish on Bitcoin, gold
Concerns around the artificial intelligence sector eased after Google’s custom TPU chip enabled Gemini to top benchmarks in coding, math, science and multimodal reasoning.
The breakthrough boosted investor confidence, as the technology uses far less energy than GPU-based processing. Alphabet (GOOG US) gained 6.8% on the week, helping reduce fears about Nvidia’s (NVDA US) growth outlook.
S&P 500 Index (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / CointelegraphBitcoin’s path to $100,000 appears increasingly independent of broad macro trends, however, as its correlation with tech stocks continues to fade.
The longer BTC holds above $90,000, the more confident bulls become, supported by the return of ETF inflows, less risk aversion in BTC derivatives, and the likelihood of liquidity injections from the central bank.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-rate-cut-bets-surge-can-bitcoin-finally-break-91k-dollars?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
