Philippines to miss GDP growth target for 3rd year in a row

THE PHILIPPINES is unlikely to hit even the low end of the government’s growth target this year, as bad weather and a corruption scandal weigh on economic activity, Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) said on Monday.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan conceded that this year’s 5.5-6.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target is out of reach.

“Honestly, that’s very unlikely now. We need to grow roughly 7% in the fourth quarter to achieve a 5.5% growth for the year. Given the situations and data that are coming out, that’s quite unlikely,” he said in a year-end press chat.

This will be the third straight year that the Philippines will miss its GDP growth target.

Mr. Balisacan said the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) is set to meet on Dec. 9 to review the macroeconomic assumptions and targets.

“Our DBCC is meeting to assess the situation, particularly given the recent developments in the third-quarter performance and what’s emerging in the fourth quarter. Those will be taken into account in setting a target for 2026,” he said.

The Marcos administration has been under pressure after a corruption scandal involving public works projects has dampened government spending and shaken investor and consumer confidence.

Third-quarter GDP grew by 4%, the slowest in over four years, bringing the nine-month average to 5%.

Last month, S&P Global Ratings cut its 2025 growth forecast to 4.8%, while the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office trimmed its projection to 5.2%.

Mr. Balisacan said he is hoping the economy has seen the worst in the third quarter as President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. instructed agencies to ramp up their spending.

However, he said the full-year GDP growth may still reflect cautious spending by infrastructure-related agencies in the fourth quarter, although the impact is expected to be less pronounced than in the third quarter.

Mr. Balisacan said the nine-month average growth of 5% is still “quite respectable.”

“That still places us something like in the middle of the pack among our neighbors. But hopefully, our intention is to move back to the top tier of these Asian countries next year,” he said.

Even though economic growth may have slowed, Mr. Balisacan said the Philippines remains one of the best-performing economies in the region.

“Don’t be misled by just looking at one quarter, because the economy goes through cycles. We are probably in this part of the cycle, and obviously instigated by these developments related to our governance issues,” he said.

Mr. Balisacan also said major political uncertainty is a deterrence to economic growth but noted that the rule of law needs to be respected.

“We have a constitution. We have rule of law. And we need to abide by those rules. Otherwise, the investing community and the public will not see certainty in the future,” he said.

Amid the flood control controversy, Mr. Balisacan said DEPDEv’s Regional Project Monitoring Committees have already validated 9,290 of 9,855 flood control projects nationwide through the Rapid On-Site Verification Report (ROVeR). The final reports will be submitted to the Office of the President.

He said the DEPDEV is preparing an executive report to guide the administration in navigating governance challenges and the path forward in 2026.

“This report will feature economic analysis, scenarios and policy options, as well as strategic proposals for institutional strengthening to protect our economy’s hard-won gains,” he said.

The document will be released to the public after discussions with the President and Cabinet.

2026 ASEAN CHAIRMANSHIP
Meanwhile, Mr. Balisacan expects a surge in tourism when it assumes the chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2026.

“We surely take advantage of that position of being the chair because the attention of the world will be with us, focus on us, so we need to seize that moment of opportunity,” he said.

He said the government is aligning infrastructure programs to meet the “experiential needs” of visitors, aiming to bolster confidence in the country as a destination for tourists and investors.

Mr. Balisacan clarified that these infrastructure projects for the 2026 ASEAN Summit had no delays and were planned two years ago.

“The projects, particularly transport projects, most of these are ODA (official development assistance)-funded, and ODA projects were not affected at all by these controversies. There were no delays in the implementation of these projects,” he said.

Economy Undersecretary Rosemarie G. Edillon said hosting major international events has historically lifted the country’s growth.

“We hosted the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), and we saw that the sectors of transport, communication, hotel, restaurant and accommodation, and then the export of services, which is really to do with international travel, actually grew double digits at that time,” she said in the same panel.

UMIC STATUS
The Philippines is still on track to graduate to upper middle‑income country status (UMIC) next year, Mr. Balisacan said.

However, this will depend on the World Bank which may set new thresholds in July 2026, as well as the exchange rate, inflation and exchange rate, he added.

The World Bank’s latest country income classification showed the Philippines remained a lower middle-income country with a gross national income (GNI) per capita of $4,470. This was higher than its GNI per capita of $4,230 in the previous year.

The World Bank classifies a country as lower middle-income if the GNI per capita level is between $1,136 and $4,495.

The Philippines’ GNI per capita was only $26 shy of the World Bank’s adjusted GNI per capita requirement of $4,496-$13,935 to become a UMIC. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante