Even As Trump Escalates In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro Won’t Fold

After weeks of saber rattling and deadly airstrikes, US President Donald Trump has ordered Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to leave. Maduro responded with a spontaneous rally in Caracas, dancing before his supporters and making clear that this was never going to happen.

Indeed, the chances of Maduro going into exile voluntarily are exceedingly slim. Even as pressure mounts on his regime, with an aircraft carrier looming in the Caribbean, a $50 million bounty for any information leading to his capture, and with Trump ramping up threats of military action, the Venezuelan leader is showing no signs of backing down.

Last week Trump threatened to attack Venezuelan drug cartel targets on land and declared that Venezuelan airspace had been closed, marking a serious escalation. US airstrikes particularly cruise missile attacks, would almost certainly cripple Maduro’s forces. But doing so could carry huge political risks for Trump who is already grappling with record low approval ratings, and a public who is wary of another US military intervention. A CBS news poll from mid-November found that 70% of Americans are opposed to military action in Venezuela.

The Trump administration was hoping that a combination of threats and military build-up would intimidate Maduro into accepting a life in exile or convince his generals to depose him.

But threats will not work on leaders like Maduro. These types of leaders – referred to as personalist dictators (or those who have amassed enormous power in their own hands at the expense of the ruling party, the military or any other institution)–will cling to power until the very end. They see themselves as synonymous with the state and usually refuse to be pushed out of power even when the writing is on the wall.

Saddam Hussein was ousted from power (and eventually executed) after the US invaded Iraq, having refused US orders that he leave the country in 48 hours. Even with 250,000 US troops stationed in the Gulf ready for action, Hussein doubled down and called former US President George W Bush “pathetic.”

Rebel forces initially offered Muammar Gaddafi the chance to live out his retirement in Libya if he would surrender power. Instead of capitulating, Gaddafi referred to his opponents as “rats” and “cockroaches.” While rebel forces (which were supported by Nato), gained significant ground controlling all of Eastern Libya, Gaddafi declared he would never leave the country and would prefer to “die a martyr.” He was eventually captured and killed.

Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen was deposed in 2012 but only left the country briefly after an assassination attempt. A bomb had exploded in his palace, with Saleh suffering from broken bones, shrapnel wounds, smoke inhalation, internal bleeding and extensive burns. But as bad as his injuries were, this was not enough to deter Saleh. After receiving treatment in Saudi Arabia, he returned to Yemen and tried to regain power by shifting his alliance to the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. They would turn on him, killing him in 2017, filming and disseminating a gruesome video of his death on social media.

Though remaining in power carries risks for dictators, leaving power is not seen as a viable option. And it’s not just the lust for power, but the wealth that comes with it. Maduro’s exact wealth is unknown, yet in August of this year the US seized more than $700 million worth in assets, including mansions in Florida, cars, and multiple million-dollar planes.

The other option that the US is hoping for is that the military will oust Maduro. Indeed, the key to Maduro’s survival lies with how happy and loyal his military is. While many of the disgruntled lower rank members of the military have fled the country, the officers that could threaten Maduro have become too invested in the status quo.

How Maduro keeps the military loyal

Understanding the threat that the military poses to his own survival, Maduro spent the last decade buying its loyalty, which came at a huge cost to the Venezuelan economy. Promotion decisions follow no logic beyond loyalty. As an example–a Venezuelan general with no experience in the oil industry was chosen to lead the state oil industry in 2017.

As Venezuela’s economy collapsed, with rank and file members of the military seeing their salaries drop to less than $20 per month, higher ranked members of the military were given access to preferential loans, hard currencies at preferential exchange rates, and control of certain enterprises. This included the control over the distribution of food and raw materials, and running gold mines, oil service companies and import-export firms.

Maduro also looked the other way when members of the military profited from bribes from drug traffickers. As the US sees it, Maduro is not just looking the other way, but is heading a major drug cartel, known as Cartel de los Soles, alongside Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, former military intelligence chief Hugo Carvajal, and former General Clíver Alcalá, something that Maduro denies.

While not a cartel in the traditional sense with a hierarchical organization, Cartel de los Soles is a loose network of members of the Maduro regime that are involved in a wide range of activities, including oil smuggling, mining and drug trafficking.

Anyone promoted to general—where loyalty is the only criterion– is offered access to lucrative regional postings to border regions where they can profit from the drug trade. To broaden the number of military officers with something to lose, Maduro has promoted over 2,000 members of the military to the rank of general, twice that of the US military.

China and Russia to the rescue

Maduro may be somewhat isolated in Latin America, but he has plenty of friends in high places that he can rely on to keep his expensive patronage machine running. Two of his biggest supporters remain Russia and China. After the US ramped up sanctions on Venezuela in 2017, Maduro was able to turn to Russia for support, providing him with financial aid and arms. Moscow also assisted Venezuela in selling gold in unregulated markets which was exchanged for euros to purchase imports. Much of the profits then went to support Maduro’s military cronies that prop him up in power.

Since then Putin and Maduro have signed a strategic partnership in May of this year—which was showcased on Russian state television. They agreed to cooperate in the exploration and development of new oil and gas fields in their joint ventures as well as to expand oil trading operations.

And though Russia’s conflict with Ukraine has limited the support it can offer Maduro, China has stepped up. Venezuela exports 84% of its oil to China either directly or indirectly—rebranding the Venezuelan crude oil as Malaysian to evade being linked.

The waiting game

Though Maduro may publicly mock the US threats—even dancing in a viral video, he is taking them seriously increasing the number of Cuban bodyguards around him. But Maduro still thinks that he has the upper hand. In the absence of complete isolation and a military cut off from its lucrative incentives, Maduro knows he can wait this out and count on Trump to blink first.