TLDR

• Strategy has drastically reduced its Bitcoin purchases since late 2024, signaling preparation for a potential bear market.
• Monthly Bitcoin buys by Strategy fell from 134,000 BTC in 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025.
• In November 2025, Strategy made a large purchase of 8,178 BTC, but its overall buying activity remains cautious.
• The company has set aside a $1.4 billion cash reserve to cover dividend payments and debt obligations.
• Strategy is engaging with MSCI over a proposed policy that could restrict firms holding large amounts of digital assets from stock market indexes.

CryptoQuant has observed a drastic reduction in Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, signaling the company’s preparation for a bear market. The firm has cut back on its Bitcoin buys since late 2024. In its recent report, CryptoQuant noted that Strategy’s buying behavior has shifted from aggressive accumulation to a more cautious stance.

Strategy’s Bitcoin buying peaked in 2024 with 134,000 BTC purchased in a single month. However, by November 2025, monthly purchases had dwindled to just 9,100 BTC, a significant drop. As of this month, Strategy has only bought 135 BTC, signaling a shift in its strategy.

CryptoQuant highlighted that the 24-month buffer strategy employed by Strategy indicates preparations for a downturn in the market. The company’s focus has now moved towards liquidity, and its once aggressive accumulation strategy has significantly slowed down. This move reflects a broader market caution amid Bitcoin’s largest drawdown of 2025.

Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings and Recent Purchases

In November 2025, Strategy made a significant purchase of 8,178 BTC, totaling around $835.5 million. This acquisition raised its total Bitcoin holdings to 649,870 BTC, valued at approximately $58.7 billion. While this was the company’s largest purchase since July, it still reflects a more conservative approach compared to previous years.

Despite this, Strategy remains one of the largest Bitcoin holders, even as the firm curtails new buys. The company’s Bitcoin holdings have become a key point of speculation as it adjusts its treasury strategy in response to market fluctuations.

Strategy CEO Phong Le recently remarked that the firm may sell some of its Bitcoin if necessary. If the company’s stock falls below net asset value (NAV) or loses access to financing, it could liquidate part of its holdings. To mitigate this, Strategy has set aside a $1.4 billion cash reserve for dividend payments and debt obligations.

The company aims to extend this cash reserve to cover 24 months, providing more financial flexibility. Strategy’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions will be critical in maintaining its position as one of the largest Bitcoin holders.

Challenges with MSCI and Stock Market Indexes

Strategy faces challenges in trying to join major stock market indexes. MSCI, an organization that sets eligibility criteria for these indexes, has proposed a new policy. This policy would restrict treasury companies with 50% or more of their assets in digital currencies from being included in these indexes.

If this policy is enacted in January, it could prevent firms like Strategy from benefiting from passive inflows tied to index inclusion. Strategy has been engaging with MSCI regarding this proposed change, which could impact its future plans.

CryptoQuant also referenced the Difficulty Regression Model, which estimates the cost of producing Bitcoin. Currently, the model places the production cost at around $92,300, closely matching Bitcoin’s current spot price. This suggests that Bitcoin is in a fair value zone, which could indicate a bearish market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s recent price movement below the model’s cost may signal further market corrections. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price drops below the model, it has marked a bearish phase for the cryptocurrency.

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