Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Fed Rate Cut Could Trigger Rally to $100,000

TLDR

• Bitcoin is holding at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone, a critical support level that analysts say must be defended to prevent a drop to $76,000
• The Federal Reserve meeting on December 9-10 is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut with 92% probability according to Polymarket traders
• Bitcoin briefly fell below $88,000 over the weekend before recovering to $91,500 in what traders called a leverage liquidation event
• Technical analysis shows Bitcoin breaking out of a descending channel with resistance at $94,600 and potential upside targets of $108,000 to $116,000
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to proceed with the rate cut despite inflation concerns from several policymakers

Bitcoin is trading at a critical technical level that could determine its price direction in the coming weeks. Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades identified the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone as a key area that bulls must defend.

A break below this support could send Bitcoin down to April lows around $76,000. The analyst noted this zone represents the last major support before testing those lows again.

Bitcoin experienced another leverage flush late Sunday. The price dropped below $88,000 briefly before bouncing back above $91,500.

Federal Reserve Meeting Takes Center Stage

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week. A 0.25% rate cut is widely expected by market participants.

Polymarket traders are pricing in a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. This high probability has shifted Bitcoin price outlook from bearish to potentially bullish.

10x Research head Markus Thielen said crypto markets have lost momentum since the October rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a data-dependent approach rather than a clear cutting cycle.

Thielen expects the December 10 decision to be followed by a cautious tone. This would mirror October’s approach and sustain mild pressure into year-end.

The market is dealing with depressed volumes and negative ETF flows. Upside participation remains thin while Bitcoin trades in the $70,000 to $100,000 range.

Apollo Capital’s Henrik Andersson said the rate cut is already priced in. The outlook statement will be key for market direction.

Fed Chair Powell will be replaced in May next year. Andersson expects more interest rate cuts in 2026, which should support crypto and other risk assets.

LVRG Research director Nick Ruck pointed to upcoming jobs and inflation data releases. These could unlock renewed liquidity inflows if they align with expectations for continued monetary easing.

Technical Setup Points to Potential Breakout

Bitcoin has broken out of a long descending channel. This signals the strongest phase of the downtrend may have ended.

Price is hovering around $89,000, just beneath a key resistance-turned-support area. Sellers can still create short-term pressure until Bitcoin closes decisively above this zone.

The breakout shows early strength after bouncing from near $79,000. Bitcoin pushed back toward mid-trend levels from the lower channel region.

The next major resistance level sits at $94,600. Clearing this level would confirm bullish continuation according to technical analysis.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe outlined a scenario with short-term volatility before a sustained rally. He expects pre-FOMC selling pressure to potentially drive prices down to $87,000.

After sweeping liquidity at the lows, van de Poppe anticipates a swift bounce back. He expects Bitcoin to break $92,000 and run toward $100,000 in the coming one to two weeks.

Fed actions including reducing QT, cutting rates, and expanding money supply could support the business cycle. If the $94,600 resistance breaks, chart projections show upside targets at $108,000 and $116,000.

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