Buyers Hold Channel Support as Fed Decision Drives Next Breakout Attempt

• Bitcoin rebounds more than 12% from November lows but remains capped below $94,100 as spot outflows continue to pressure momentum.
• The Fed’s expected rate cut is the key catalyst, with analysts noting signals that often precede macro-driven reversals.
• Buyers defend the rising channel, with a breakout above $94,100–$98,100 opening targets toward $107,500 on strong volume.

Bitcoin has recovered more than 12% from its November lows, and the price today trades near $92,950 after bouncing from the lower band of its rising channel. The move comes as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, which is expected to deliver the last rate cut of the year. The setup places Bitcoin at a key junction where macro policy, ETF flows, and technical structure converge.

Spot Outflows Persist As Buyers Rely On Macro Catalysts

Exchange flows remain negative. Coinglass data shows roughly $27 million in net outflows at the start of today’s session. Outflows have dominated for weeks, confirming that supply continues to move back onto exchanges rather than into long term storage.

Persistent outflows tend to limit the strength of intraday rallies. Buyers have managed to defend the $90,000 zone, but lasting upside requires either a shift in flows or an external catalyst. The market is now looking to the Fed for that shift.

Fed Decision Shapes Bitcoin’s Short Term Breakout Path

Analysts expect a 0.25 percent rate cut, with CME futures showing an 88 percent probability and prediction markets reflecting nearly full confidence. A confirmed cut would reduce the opportunity cost of holding digital assets and weaken yields on Treasuries, both of which typically support upside in crypto.

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According to multiple research desks, the meeting could act as the reversal point for the recent drawdown. CF Benchmarks highlighted a volatility spike signal that historically appears near exhaustion phases. Past instances have produced positive returns over the following months, often pushing Bitcoin decisively above key resistance zones.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate additional cuts in 2026. A softer policy environment strengthens the long term case and improves liquidity conditions, two factors that Bitcoin responds to quickly during periods of macro uncertainty.

The broader market remains cautious. Stocks were flat heading into the meeting, showing that traders prefer to wait for Powell’s tone before committing capital. This adds weight to Bitcoin’s reaction once the decision is made public.

Buyers Defend Rising Channel As Key Levels Tighten

The daily chart shows Bitcoin trading inside a clean rising channel that started after the November capitulation. Buyers continue to defend higher lows while sellers protect the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $94,100. A breakout above this line opens the path toward $97,200 and the 0.618 retracement.

Supertrend resistance sits near $98,100. This is one of the most important zones on the chart. A close above this level would flip the structure bullish and invalidate the broader downtrend from the October high.

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Parabolic SAR prints support below price, signaling that momentum favors buyers for now. The dotted trendline above price remains the larger structural barrier. Clearing it would confirm a sustained shift in market direction.

Key levels to watch

• Immediate support: $90,900
• Channel support: $87,500
• Breakout trigger: $94,100
• Major resistance: $98,100
• Upside extension: $107,500 on strong volume

Intraday momentum supports the bull case. The 30 minute chart shows BTC breaking out of a descending micro trendline while RSI climbs toward 60. MACD holds a stable bullish cross, confirming renewed demand during dips.

Sentiment Battles Long Term Forecasts As Reality Outperforms Models

Bold price targets dominated early 2025. Institutions projected aggressive levels, with forecasts ranging from $180,000 to more than $1 million. Even with strong ETF adoption and more than $250 billion in inflows, Bitcoin ended the year near $88,000. The market rewarded disciplined structure over speculative predictions.

2025 demonstrated that narratives and targets matter less than liquidity, rate policy, and on chain positioning. The current setup highlights that reality again. Bitcoin has a strong structural foundation, yet macro headwinds kept price below expectations.

If the Fed confirms easing and improves risk appetite, Bitcoin will move back toward the upper bands of its multi month range.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up

A close above $94,100 sets the stage for a push toward $97,200 and the Supertrend barrier at $98,100. Breaking those levels confirms trend strength and opens the path toward $107,500.

Failure to reclaim $94,100 keeps BTC inside the mid range. A drop below $90,900 pressures channel support at $87,500. Losing $87,500 turns the bounce into a deeper correction.

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If buyers respond strongly to the Fed cut and reclaim $98,100, momentum shifts in favor of a year end breakout. If price slips below $90,900, sellers regain control and keep Bitcoin inside a sideways consolidation.