Cathie Wood Says Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Breaking Due to Institutional Investors

TLDR

• Cathie Wood argues Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle no longer defines the asset’s behavior due to institutional adoption
• Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased with crashes now smaller than the historic 75-90% drops seen in earlier years
• The most recent halving occurred April 20, 2024, cutting mining rewards to 3.125 BTC
• Standard Chartered lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000, citing reduced halving influence
• Bitcoin now trades more as a risk-on asset alongside equities rather than as a hedge like gold

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may no longer control the cryptocurrency’s long-term price movements. She made the comments during a Fox Business interview on Tuesday.

Wood explained that institutional investors are changing how Bitcoin behaves in the market. The sharp price crashes of 75% to 90% that occurred in Bitcoin’s early years are becoming less common.

Wood suggested the market may have already seen its recent low point a few weeks ago. Her view contradicts over a decade of established market patterns.

Bitcoin’s cycle has historically followed halving events. These are block reward reductions that happen approximately every four years.

Institutional Money Changes Market Dynamics

The most recent halving took place on April 20, 2024. It reduced the mining reward to 3.125 BTC per block.

In the past, halvings triggered supply squeezes and strong price rallies. However, Wood believes the market has shifted.

Bitcoin now trades more like a risk-on asset. It moves with equities and real estate rather than serving as a protective hedge.

ARK Invest has continued buying crypto exposure. The firm recently purchased more shares of Coinbase, Circle, and its own ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

Wood’s comments join a larger industry discussion about Bitcoin’s cycle. Analysts at major institutions say Bitcoin no longer responds to halvings the same way.

Standard Chartered released a report this week stating that ETF buying has reduced the halving’s influence. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick wrote that prices peaking 18 months after each halving is “no longer valid.”

The bank lowered its 2025 Bitcoin price target from $200,000 to $100,000. The change reflects the new market structure.

Debate Splits Crypto Analysts

Social media debates about the cycle intensified since late July. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju both said institutional inflows erased the traditional cycle.

After hitting $122,000 in July, analysts say Bitcoin’s behavior looks different. The movement appears slower and steadier than previous cycles.

Sentora executive Patrick Heusser pointed to the Bitcoin Power Law model. This model views price growth as part of a long-term curve influenced by time.

He called this marginal compared to Bitcoin’s market value and the billions flowing into spot ETFs. Institutional accumulation from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and regulated products is reshaping the market.

These buyers rarely exit positions quickly. This locks up supply and smooths out volatility.

Some firms disagree with the cycle-breaking theory. Glassnode published data in August showing the current cycle’s structure mirrors earlier ones.

Despite institutional involvement, Glassnode argued Bitcoin’s timing still aligns with past multi-year peaks. Analysts expect crashes may be shallower now, closer to 30% to 50% instead of deep drawdowns.

Rallies may also stretch over longer periods. Strategies built around precise halving timing may no longer work with the same accuracy.

Macro analyst Lyn Alden said Bitcoin’s current market lacks the euphoria needed for a major collapse. Broader economic forces now dictate the asset’s movement.

Alden expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by 2026. The path there will be uneven, she warned.

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