Bitcoin and Ethereum Face ‘Max Pain’ from $4.5B Options Expiry

• Around $3.7 billion of the notional value belongs to Bitcoin options, while roughly $770 million is in Ethereum options
• The put-to-call ratio for BTC is 1.10 and 1.22 for ETH
• Deribit notes the “max pain” levels (price points where the greatest number of options expire worthless) sit near $90,000 for Bitcoin and $3,100 for Ethereum

Nearly $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are scheduled to expire, making this a key moment for the crypto market right before the end of the year. These large expirations are now an important focus for traders, as they could lead to sharp price moves and cause investors to adjust their strategies.

According to derivatives market data from Deribit, around $3.7 billion of the notional value belongs to Bitcoin options, while roughly $770 million is in Ethereum options. 

The put-to-call ratios for both BTC and ETH indicate cautious positioning (1.10 for BTC and 1.22 for ETH), with Bitcoin’s put dominance slightly higher and Ethereum showing more calls than puts. This signals a mix of caution and some optimism in the market.

Related: Crypto 2026 Outlook Shows BTC Trading Like a Sovereign Asset, Altcoins Like Penny Stock

“Max pain” levels

Deribit notes the “max pain” levels (price points where the greatest number of options expire worthless) sit near $90,000 for Bitcoin and $3,100 for Ethereum. These prices often act like magnets when expiration nears, affecting the market as traders try to protect themselves or close out their bets.

Leading into this expiry, some Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products have experienced mixed flows, with outflows sometimes slowing down the market’s progress. When options contracts are about to expire, these ETF flows tend to have a bigger impact, with big traders adjusting their positions to manage the risk from institutional investment shifts.

Interestingly, right on the topic of near-term pressure from ETF outflows, Deribit shared a post quoting Sean McNulty, Derivatives trading lead APAC at FalconX, saying: “There’s definitely risks in the near term… we’ll need one of those structural things to change.”

What this could mean for the next week

The options’ expiry could cause some short-term bumps and dips as traders finalize their bets. Also, with put-to-call ratios relatively balanced, prices might trade sideways unless major news breaks.

Notably, trading usually slows down in December, since many big players and individual investors take time off due to the holidays. With fewer people actively involved, even a normal amount of buying or selling can have a bigger impact. Because of this quieter backdrop, a major options expiry could lead to sharper price jumps and drops than it would during a busier time of year.

Related: Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction: ETH Consolidates Gains With Supply Tightening Signals