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Bitcoin's Parabolic Arc Snaps: Trader Peter
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Bitcoin's Parabolic Arc Snaps: Trader Peter
Bitcoin's Parabolic Arc Snaps: Trader Peter Brandt Eyes $25K Crash Floor
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Bitcoin's Parabolic Arc Snaps: Trader Peter Brandt Eyes $25K Crash Floor
Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin's growth parabola has fractured, potentially leading to a price drop to $25,000.
By Omkar Godbole, AI Boost|Edited by Jamie Crawley
Dec 15, 2025, 12:11 p.m.
BTC could crash to $25K.
What to know:
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin's growth parabola has fractured, potentially leading to a price drop to $25,000.
- Bitcoin's bull cycles have historically seen diminishing returns, with significant pullbacks following record highs.
- The current cycle saw prices double to $126,000 before pulling back to under $90,000, breaking the parabolic trend.
Veteran trader and chart analyst Peter Brandt has warned that bitcoin's BTC$89,762.79 signature growth parabola has fractured, opening the door to a brutal slide potentially down to $25,000.
Brandt's call hinges on exponential decay in bitcoin's bull cycles. The cryptocurrency has historically rallied hard in 12-18 months after halving and subsequently slipped into a bear market, characterized by 70% to 80% pullback from record highs.
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However, each bull cycle has seen diminishing returns. For instance, following the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, BTC chalked out a 100-fold rise to $1,240 by December 2013. The 2016 halving produced a 74-fold rise and the 2020 halving brought an eight-fold rise.
The latest post-halving cycle, which kicked off following the quadrennial event in April 2024, saw prices double to a record high of $126,000 by October this year. Since then, prices have pulled back to just under $90,000, slicing through the parabola curve that has marked massive price uptrends during each prior cycle.
"The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240," Brandt said on X.
BTC's parabola violation. (Peter Brandt, TradingView)
Brandt lays it out on a log-scale chart stretching back to 2010: four steepening pink arcs, each tracing a cycle's manic vertical climb. Parabolas don't bend gently, they accelerate skyward, just like BTC's history of rapid gains.
Meanwhile, crosses below that support line have marked end of bull runs. The slide from October highs has done that, knifing under the fourth arc.
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AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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Crypto Markets Today: Bitcoin Rises, but Risk Appetite Remains Weak
Crypto prices are little changed, with bitcoin steady after dropping back from last week’s post-Fed high while altcoins continue to underperform amid risk-off sentiment.
What to know:
- BTC rebounded from Sunday’s $88,000 low to around $89,900, though it remains well below the $94,300 it hit after the Fed’s 25 basis-point rate cut.
- More than half of the top 100 tokens are lower over 24 hours, with the CoinDesk 20 up just 0.16% and the broader CD80 down 0.77%, underscoring altcoins' continuing underperformance.
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