US jobs data confirms downside risks – ING

Combined October and November US jobs data reinforced downside risks to the labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.6%, while markets now await Fed’s Christopher Waller’s speech for further clues ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Fed’s Waller to speak on economic outlook

“The combined release yesterday of October and November jobs data did not alter the Fed’s narrative that the risk to the US labour market is on the downside. Notable was the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. While Chair Powell has said that data releases will be distorted by the government shutdown, he has also spent much time positioning the unemployment rate as the best read on the supply-demand imbalance in the US labour market. The 4.6% rate is now higher than the median rate (4.5%) expected by FOMC members for the end of 2025.”

“There is no significant US data today, but we do have a speech on the economic outlook from the Fed’s Christopher Waller. He speaks at 14:15 CET. While belatedly favouring the rate cut we saw last week, we have also seen him questioning whether US consumption converges on the soft labour market or whether the US jobs market converges upwards on resilient consumption. That question may well remain unresolved after yesterday’s data, as October retail sales were quite strong. “

“DXY has support at 97.80/85. But unless Waller reaches some quite dovish conclusions, this support level probably holds into Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting.”