Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro courts markets as presidential bid faces skepticism

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, is meeting with business and finance figures this week as he prepares to run for president next year, according to persons familiar with his intentions.

The outreach comes as investors question the seriousness of his candidacy and the lack of clarity surrounding his economic program.

The discussions follow a lunch held on Thursday at UBS offices in São Paulo, where guests questioned the viability of Bolsonaro’s ambition.

Since then, the senator has booked meetings with banks, investment funds, business executives, and a market-focused podcast, according to two people.

Due to the sensitivity of the situation, the individuals chose not to be identified.

According to Reuters, Flavio Bolsonaro did not respond to a request for comment.

Campaign still short on policy detail

A source close to the senator said that he would be unlikely to articulate specific policies on the economy until February.

Bolsonaro has an action-packed agenda of private-sector meetings and foreign travel planned, culminating in a trip to the United States.

Two of the sources said the present push aims to make the case to business leaders who helped deliver the presidency to his father in 2018 that his candidacy is serious.

After losing the 2022 presidential election, Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced for a coup plot earlier this year, and this month stated he wishes for his eldest son to be a candidate for Brazil’s highest office in 2026.

That endorsement rattled markets.

Investors reacted badly to the news, and Brazil’s currency and stock market fell, highlighting frustration among those hoping that Jair Bolsonaro would have backed a more experienced person with executive experience, such as Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, a former minister, to run against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Polling and political uncertainty

Lula presently has a clear lead in the race. In hypothetical run-off situations, he leads Tarcisio de Freitas and Flavio Bolsonaro by 10 percentage points, according to a poll issued Tuesday by pollster Quaest.

Scepticism about the younger Bolsonaro’s bid grew last Sunday when he suggested he might withdraw his candidacy, but it would come “at a price,” while his backers in Congress lobbied to reduce his father’s prison sentence.

Since then, the senator has pledged to remain in the race, promising to propose a market-friendly agenda and positioning himself as “a more centrist Bolsonaro.”

Economic team remains undefined

During his 2018 campaign, Jair Bolsonaro delegated economic policy concerns to Paulo Guedes, a University of Chicago-trained economist who eventually became Economy Minister.

However, Flavio Bolsonaro has yet to appoint a point person to organise his policy recommendations.

According to attendance at the UBS lunch, the senator stated that his program will be similar to his father’s pro-market ideas, such as privatisation and budgetary discipline.

He speculated that economic leadership may come from Guedes, former central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto, former development bank head Gustavo Montezano, or someone with a similar background.

People close to Guedes and Campos Neto claimed they had not been contacted to participate in the nascent campaign and have no desire to.

Guedes has informed associates that he is hesitant to return to frontline politics because of Brazil’s profound division, according to the same sources. Campos Neto became Nubank’s vice-chairman in July.

Montezano, the current CEO of investment firm YvY Capital, attended the UBS luncheon but stated through his press office that he was there just as a guest at the organisers’ invitation.

“The person chosen will be someone who worked with Guedes, is close to him, or shares his agenda,” one source close to the senator said, adding that it was too early to decide on a single name.

Early outreach to former officials

According to two people close to former economic authorities, Flavio Bolsonaro recently contacted Adolfo Sachsida, who previously led Brazil’s economic policy secretariat under Guedes and later served as energy minister.

According to one of the sources, their chat focused on political support rather than a specific campaign position.

For the time being, Bolsonaro’s strategy appears to be geared toward ensuring that his campaign is viable, despite the fact that critical issues regarding leadership and policy have yet to be answered.

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