NEAR Protocol analysis – Why another 34% drawdown is likely for its price

NEAR Protocol [NEAR] has lost 11.38% of its value over the past week, with the altcoin falling by 5.74% in the last 24 hours. The day’s losses came after high volatility on Wednesday, with Bitcoin briefly rallying to $90.2k before plunging immediately to the local support of $85.7k.

This 5.6% Bitcoin [BTC] drop has shaken market sentiment, which was already fearful. This meant that NEAR traders needed to be bearishly biased.

They could have had positive expectations for the week after seeing the Futures data on Monday. There was a 13.1% Open Interest surge, from $122 million to $138 million, and an uptick in spot buying volume.

The Futures funding rate also rose to show short-term bullish sentiment, according to Coinalyze data. This short-term impetus was not sustained, however. Hence, the question – What should traders expect next?

The failure of the long-term range, and its implications

Since March, NEAR Protocol’s token has traded within a range (yellow) that extended from $1.82 to $3.38. The second week of December saw NEAR close a weekly session at $1.59. This was well below the $1.82 range low and the long-term support at $1.72.

The sliding OBV underlined steady sell volume, with the RSI capturing the downward momentum of the altcoin.

The 1-day chart reinforced the bearish trend’s strength. Since the second week of November, the OBV and RSI have both been falling. This reinforced the idea that sellers have been dominant.

The price action revealed that the $1.82-level was retested as resistance, but sellers held up well, not allowing bulls to climb any higher. A few days of consolidation around $1.8 were followed by a NEAR decline.

Is a bullish reversal possible for NEAR from here?

Based on the evidence at hand, a bullish move is highly unlikely. The long-term trend and short-term volatility are likely to send NEAR lower, towards the $0.97 long-term support.

A move back above $1.82 is needed to flip the bias bullishly for NEAR.

Traders’ call to action – Should you sell now or wait for a bounce?

Traders looking to go short need not FOMO after seeing NEAR’s descent in recent days. The price might bounce to the $1.7-$1.8 supply zone that precipitated the current bearish impulse move.

Such a retest would offer a short-selling opportunity, with invalidation being a daily session close above $1.82.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin’s sudden price moves have increased selling pressure across the altcoin market, bearishly affecting tokens such as NEAR.
• The failure of the long-term range and $1.72 support meant that a move to $1 is likely.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion