Bitcoin at Make-or-Break Level: The Bear-Market Signal Line Is Here

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $87,000 after a brief spike above $90,000. The move was short-lived, and the asset has since returned to its earlier range.

Over the past week, BTC has dropped by 4%, while 24-hour trading volume stands at $50 billion. Several market indicators are pointing to a possible shift in trend direction.

Long-Term Trendline Continues to Hold

Since 2018, Bitcoin has repeatedly touched and rejected a specific diagonal resistance line. This trendline has been identified by Bitcoinsensus as a key marker of past cycle tops. Each time the price has reached this level, the market has corrected sharply.

The first rejection in 2018 was followed by an 83% drop. Similar pullbacks of 56%, 77%, and 34% followed in later years. The current move marks the fifth rejection, and Bitcoin has already declined over 34% from recent highs of above $126,000. Based on past behavior, the trendline continues to act as strong resistance.

Moreover, a potential death cross on the 3-day chart is now forming. The short-term moving average is nearing a cross below the longer-term average. The asset is already trading below both lines, which could lead to further downside if the cross confirms.

Trader Butcher commented,

This type of cross is often followed by stronger selling if no reversal occurs in time.

Watching $88K and $80K for Direction

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared that Bitcoin is holding near $87,000, with three key levels to watch: $87,700, $83,800, and $80,500. These are marked as possible bounce zones. A move above $88,000 could improve the outlook. He noted,

Van de Poppe also mentioned the upcoming Bank of Japan decision. Market participants expect some reaction, but he added, “When everybody expects one thing, usually the opposite is the actual outcome,” suggesting the move may be less predictable than expected.

As CryptoPotato reported, Bitcoin’s RSI is approaching levels that in past cycles have led to strong rebounds. The last five times it dropped below 30, BTC eventually moved higher. However, structure-based tools are pointing to weakness, including the Bull-Bear Index and related market trend signals.

Daan Crypto noted that Bitcoin is trading near the same levels it held six months ago. He added, “Liquidity taken on the way up and on the way down,” and pointed to $95,000 as the nearest large liquidity area.

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