Bears Still Dominate as a Short-Term Relief Rally Builds for Ethereum crypto price

Market conditions remain fragile as traders weigh a potential relief bounce in the Ethereum crypto price against a still-dominant bearish backdrop.

Daily Chart (D1): Main Bias – Bearish With Counter‑Trend Bounce Risk

The daily timeframe defines the primary bias, and right now that bias is bearish.

Trend & EMAs (D1)

– Price: $2,871.25
– EMA20: $3,046.36
– EMA50: $3,230.73
– EMA200: $3,407.59

Price is below the 20, 50 and 200‑day EMAs, all stacked above price and pointing to a well‑established downtrend. The 20‑day is below the 50‑day, and both are below the 200‑day, which signals persistent supply on rallies. In plain terms, medium‑term players are still selling strength rather than chasing upside.

RSI (D1)

– RSI14: 39.75

RSI is below 50 but not yet oversold. That reflects bearish pressure without capitulation. There is still room for ETH to drop further before hitting true exhaustion levels. However, the indicator is low enough that short, sharp relief rallies are very possible.

MACD (D1)

– MACD line: -61.99
– Signal line: -44.44
– Histogram: -17.55

The MACD is negative with the line below the signal and a negative histogram, confirming that downside momentum remains dominant. However, the histogram is not expanding aggressively; momentum is bearish but not accelerating. That often happens late in a down swing, where the trend is still down but starting to tire.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility (D1)

– Middle band: $3,055.77
– Upper band: $3,333.78
– Lower band: $2,777.77
– Close vs bands: price is just above the lower band.

Trading close to the lower Bollinger Band tells us Ether is hugging the bearish side of its recent volatility range. That usually aligns with a downtrend. Being slightly above the band now hints at a bounce attempt from the lower volatility boundary, not a confirmed trend reversal.

ATR & Daily Volatility (D1)

– ATR14: $168.71

An ATR near $170 means daily swings of 5–6% are on the table. Volatility is elevated enough that both downside extensions and aggressive intraday squeezes are realistic. Position sizing needs to respect that scale of movement. Tight, fixed stops near entry are vulnerable to noise.

Daily Pivot Levels (D1)

– Pivot point (PP): $2,855.86
– Resistance 1 (R1): $2,890.38
– Support 1 (S1): $2,836.73

ETH is trading a touch above the daily pivot, between PP and R1. That is typical of a modest intraday bullish bias inside a wider bearish structure. Bulls have reclaimed a small tactical edge on the day. However, they are still operating underneath the larger trend resistance zone defined by the EMAs and Bollinger midline.

1‑Hour Chart (H1): Short‑Term Rebound Inside a Heavy Higher Timeframe

The 1‑hour chart shows the mechanics of the current bounce: it has improved momentum but sits below higher intraday structure.

Trend & EMAs (H1)

– Price: $2,872.99
– EMA20: $2,857.38
– EMA50: $2,893.81
– EMA200: $3,017.16

Price is now above the 1‑hour EMA20 but still below the EMA50 and far below the EMA200. That is the definition of a short‑term bounce in a medium‑term downtrend. The hourly regime is labeled neutral, which fits: the market is consolidating and trying to base, but has not turned the intraday trend up yet.

RSI (H1)

– RSI14: 53.2

RSI slightly above 50 reflects light bullish pressure intraday. Dip buyers are active enough to pull price off the lows but not strong enough yet to drive a clean trend reversal.

MACD (H1)

– MACD line: -9.36
– Signal line: -18.01
– Histogram: +8.66

The MACD line has crossed above the signal from below and the histogram turned positive. That is consistent with a short‑term momentum shift in favor of bulls. Note, though, that the MACD is still in negative territory overall, which reinforces the idea of a counter‑trend rally rather than a fresh bull leg.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility (H1)

– Middle band: $2,838.34
– Upper band: $2,870.89
– Lower band: $2,805.80

Price is trading at or just above the hourly upper band. That is a sign of short‑term strength but also short‑term overextension. The market has pushed quickly from the lows. This often leads to either a pause or a minor pullback before any further upside.

ATR & Intraday Volatility (H1)

– ATR14: $14.53

An intraday ATR around $14 shows ETH is making decent but manageable hourly moves. It is enough to reward active traders but not at the kind of extremes you see during panic or blow‑off phases.

Hourly Pivot Levels (H1)

– Pivot point (PP): $2,872.40
– R1: $2,873.58
– S1: $2,871.82

Price is hovering right on the hourly pivot cluster. That is typical of a balancing zone where neither side fully controls the next leg. A clean break and hold above R1 on expanding volume would favor extension higher. Slipping back under the pivot would put the bounce at risk.

15‑Minute Chart (M15): Execution Context – Local Push Getting Hot

The 15‑minute chart is only relevant for very short‑term entries and exits. It shows strong local momentum that is nearing exhaustion territory.

Trend & EMAs (M15)

– Price: $2,873.00
– EMA20: $2,856.15
– EMA50: $2,849.61
– EMA200: $2,896.83

Price is above the 15‑minute EMA20 and EMA50 but below the EMA200. That aligns with a short‑term up‑swing inside a still‑heavy larger intraday structure. For scalpers, pullbacks into the EMA20 and EMA50 area are the current battleground between buyers defending the bounce and sellers fading strength.

RSI (M15)

– RSI14: 68.76

RSI is pushing into the high‑60s, flirting with overbought territory. That usually signals a late stage of the immediate leg up. Further upside is possible, but the risk of a near‑term pause or micro‑pullback is increasing.

MACD (M15)

– MACD line: +7.83
– Signal line: +6.32
– Histogram: +1.51

The 15‑minute MACD is positive with the line above the signal, backing the ongoing local upswing. The histogram is not exploding higher, which hints that momentum is firm but not runaway. That is good for controlled intraday trading but again not yet a larger trend change signal.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility (M15)

– Middle band: $2,855.24
– Upper band: $2,873.92
– Lower band: $2,836.56

Price is pressing right against the 15‑minute upper band. Short‑term, that often precedes either a sideways consolidation along the band in strong trends or a quick snap‑back toward the mid‑band in choppier conditions. Given the higher‑timeframe bearish context, a small fade or range development here would not be surprising.

ATR (M15)

– ATR14: $7.14

On this micro timeframe, average moves of around $7 give a feel for scalp risk. Intraday traders should calibrate stop distance and position size to avoid getting flushed out by routine noise.

Intraday Pivot (M15)

– Pivot point (PP): $2,872.41
– R1: $2,873.59
– S1: $2,871.82

Price hugging the 15‑minute pivot cluster mirrors the 1‑hour picture. This is a short‑term decision zone. A failure to hold above the pivot on this timeframe often precedes a deeper intraday pullback.

Broader Context: Risk Appetite and Ethereum’s Position

The overall crypto market cap is around $3.02T and down modestly over 24 hours (~-0.7%), with BTC dominance at ~57.5%. The fear and greed index at 17 (Extreme Fear) tells you sentiment is already washed out. In that kind of environment, rallies can be violent. They often start as short covering and tactical mean reversion, not confident bottom‑buying.

Despite the defensive backdrop, Ethereum remains central to institutional narratives. Tokenization stories, like JPMorgan’s tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, keep ETH in the long‑term conversation. But the chart is clear: right now, the market is still trading ETH like a high‑beta risk asset under pressure, not as a safe haven.

Scenarios for Ethereum Crypto Price

Bullish Scenario

For bulls, the path is a gradual repair, not a one‑candle miracle. The bullish case starts with ETH defending the daily pivot around $2,855 and building a higher low above the recent lower Bollinger Band area (~$2,780). From there, buyers need to:

1. Reclaim and hold the 1‑hour EMA50 (~$2,894), turning the hourly structure more convincingly upward.
2. Push toward the daily Bollinger midline and EMA20 cluster near $3,050–3,100. This is the real first test of whether the bounce has teeth.
3. Eventually close a daily candle above the 20‑day EMA (~$3,046). That would be the first substantive sign that the downtrend is losing control and a broader mean‑reversion toward the 50‑day EMA (~$3,230) is on the table.

In this bullish pathway, intraday indicators would stay constructive. RSI on H1 would hold above 50 despite pullbacks, MACD on both H1 and D1 would flatten and cross upward, and price would spend more time above than below the hourly and 4H EMAs.

What invalidates the bullish scenario?
A clean break and daily close below the lower Bollinger Band and S1 support zone (roughly $2,780–2,800) would argue that this was just a weak bounce in an ongoing down‑leg. RSI on D1 rolling firmly into the low‑30s with an expanding negative MACD histogram would confirm renewed downside momentum.

Bearish Scenario

The bears still own the higher timeframe and have the cleaner narrative: sell rallies into resistance as long as ETH trades below the daily EMAs. In the bearish scenario, the current bounce stalls around the hourly EMA50 and upper band area (~$2,890–2,920) or, at best, near the daily mid‑band and EMA20 region (~$3,000–3,050), where supply steps back in.

If sellers reassert control, watch for:

1. Failure to hold above the daily pivot (~$2,855), with repeated rejections near R1 and a drift back toward S1 at $2,836.
2. Hourly RSI dropping back under 50 and the H1 MACD flipping negative again, signs that the bounce has lost momentum.
3. A push back toward the lower daily Bollinger Band (~$2,780) and eventually a decisive break lower that opens the door to deeper support zones below.

In this script, the current intraday strength on the 15‑minute and 1‑hour charts is treated as fuel for better short entries, not the beginning of a meaningful trend reversal.

What invalidates the bearish scenario?
If ETH can reclaim the daily EMA20 (~$3,046) and then hold it as support, the thesis of selling all rallies becomes weaker. A daily close above the EMA50 (~$3,230) with RSI back above 50 would strongly undermine the dominant bearish view and shift the medium‑term bias toward neutral to bullish.

How to Think About Positioning Now

The market is in a tactical bounce against a bearish daily backdrop. Short‑term traders are trying to play the mean‑reversion. Meanwhile, swing traders and larger players are still inclined to fade strength until key daily levels are reclaimed.

Volatility is significant. With a daily ATR near $170, a normal move can wipe out several percent either way. That calls for measured position sizing and clarity on which timeframe you are actually trading:

• If you are trading intraday, your signals are coming from the 15‑minute and 1‑hour charts. In that window, ETH is attempting to trend up but is already getting locally stretched.
• If you are trading multi‑day to multi‑week swings, the only thing that really matters is that ETH is still below all major daily EMAs with bearish momentum. For that horizon, the default stance remains cautious until the daily structure improves.

Uncertainty is high. Sentiment is washed out, which statistically favors sharp counter‑moves, but the broader trend is still down. That is precisely the environment where over‑confidence, bullish or bearish, tends to get punished. Clear invalidation levels and realistic risk limits matter more than trying to pick the exact bottom or top of this move.