Bitcoin miners face growing stress as reserves drop and difficulty remains near record highs

Bitcoin miner reserves have continued their gradual decline, slipping to 1.806 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant data. 

The chart shows a clear downward trajectory throughout the second half of 2025, suggesting that miners have been reducing holdings to cover operational costs as prices weaken.

Unlike panic-driven sell-offs, this appears to be a slow, structural drawdown. This pattern historically emerges during periods of tightening margins. 

Lower reserves reduce the miner-held supply, but they also signal that operators may be under increasing pressure as profitability drops.

Bitcoin Exchange-to-miner inflows hit multi-month lows

A second CryptoQuant dataset, tracking Exchange to Miner Transactions, highlights another stress indicator: miners are receiving fewer coins from exchanges than they did earlier in the year.

This is evident as a persistent downtrend on the chart, with inflows declining from peaks above 2,000 BTC per day to a series of subdued readings in the 400–700 BTC range.

Lower exchange-to-miner flows typically mean miners are

• no longer accumulating,
• relying more on their existing reserves, and
• facing liquidity constraints as market conditions tighten.

Together, declining reserves and weaker external inflows point to a mining sector that is operating on thinner margins than earlier in the cycle.

Bitcoin mining difficulty remains elevated despite price decline

Glassnode’s mining difficulty chart adds another layer to the story. Difficulty remains near historical highs, hovering around 660Z, despite BTC having dropped from above $120,000 to around $88,000.

This mismatch between difficulty and price creates one of the strongest stress signals for miners:

• Difficulty high, operational costs stay elevated
• Price low, mining revenue falls
• Margin compression, miners face increasing financial strain

Periods where difficulty remains stubbornly high while the price weakens have historically preceded miner capitulation events, in which weaker operators shut down, sell their reserves, or restructure to stay online.

What this means for Bitcoin’s market outlook

The combined picture across the three datasets suggests a growing imbalance between mining costs and revenue. If BTC remains below $90,000, miners may soon be forced to:

• sell additional reserves,
• reduce operational capacity,
• shift to lower-cost regions, or
• offload holdings to exchanges, increasing supply pressure.

The current trends do not guarantee a capitulation event, but they show the sector is drifting in that direction. A sharp rise in price would immediately ease this pressure. Without that catalyst, miner liquidity remains a key risk to track in the coming weeks.

Final Thoughts

• The mining sector is facing a triple-threat setup of falling reserves, collapsing inflows, and elevated difficulty.
• If BTC continues trading below $90K, miner-driven supply pressure could re-emerge and shape short-term market direction.