Here is Why Analysts say the Altseason is Not Coming Back

Most altcoins are currently displaying bearish patterns that suggest “altcoin season” is not coming, according to numerous analysts, as Bitcoin dominance begins to rise again. 

Key takeaways:

• The Supertrend indicator flashes “sell,” which previously led to a 66% drop in the altcoin total market cap.

• Rising BTC dominance and a low altcoin season index show no signs of reversal.

Altcoin total market cap turns bearish

The ongoing sell-off in altcoins is reflected by the correction in TOTAL2, the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin (BTC), that began on Oct. 10. 

Data from TradingView shows that TOTAL2 has decreased by 32% to $1.19 trillion in December from its all-time high of $1.77 trillion reached on Oct. 10.

This drop has seen TOTAL2 lose above key support levels, including the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) currently at $1.3 trillion, as shown in the chart below.

Related: Crypto altseason unlikely in 2026 as ‘blue-chip survivors’ to win out: Analyst

The SuperTrend indicator also flashed a bearish signal when it reversed from red to green and moved above the price in mid-November.

This indicator overlays the chart while tracking TOTAL2’s trend, like the moving averages. It incorporates the average true range in its calculations, which helps traders identify market trends.

Previous confirmations from these two indicators were followed by 85.5% and 66% drawdowns during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, as shown in the chart below.

Altcoins are still stuck in the downtrend as TOTAL2 consolidates within an ascending triangle. 

“Altcoin market cap is coiling into a brutal downtrend,” Merlijn The Trader wrote in an X post analysis. 

Support at $1.15 trillion is holding for now, but “if this triangle breaks, we could see a -30% flush” to $830 billion, the analyst wrote, adding that the “altseason is not coming” until the resistance at $1.68 trillion is broken.

“Alt season will never occur again,” wrote CryptoDaddi in a recent post on X, adding that going forward, money will be concentrated into a select few altcoins.

Bitcoin’s unshakable dominance

Bitcoin’s (BTC) grip on the cryptocurrency market has tightened in 2025, leaving little room for altcoins to outperform. 

After pushing past 65% in June, Bitcoin dominance, a metric measuring Bitcoin’s market share relative to the overall crypto market, dropped to 57% in September.

Since then, the metric has been on an upward trend, recording higher highs and higher lows, as shown in the chart below.

At the time of publication, BTC dominance is at 59.27%, indicating that it is still Bitcoin season.

This metric has not dropped below 50% since September 2023, which has previously marked the start of the altseason.

This is a structural shift driven by institutional adoption that came after the approval and success of Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted billions from traditional finance.

Institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity prioritize Bitcoin for its adoption, relative stability and regulatory clarity, viewing altcoins as riskier and less liquid.

It’s not just aggressive buying by Strategy either. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF attracted over $25 billion in inflows in 2025, reinforcing the preference corporate buyers have for BTC over altcoins.

Bitcoin dominance is printing a higher low, and money is rotating back into BTC, not alts,” said CyrilXBT in an X post, adding:

It’s still Bitcoin season

Meanwhile, key indicators the crypto industry uses to determine an incoming altcoin season suggest it’s still nowhere in sight.

According to Capriole Investments’ Altcoin Speculation Index, only 21% of the top altcoins have outperformed BTC during the last three-month period, suggesting capitulation among altcoin holders.

Additionally, the Crypto Market Breadth, a measure of market strength, reveals that only 8% of all altcoins are trading above their 50-day moving average, suggesting that the altcoin market is extremely weak.

Similarly, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which measures the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin’s performance over the past 90 days, is reading a score of 18 out of 100, leaning toward a more Bitcoin-dominated market, referring to it as “Bitcoin Season.” Altcoin season is when the percentage is above 75%.

“CMC Altcoin Season Index is at a record low,” said altcoin trader Money Ape in an analysis on X, adding:

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has outperformed most other cryptocurrency sectors in recent months, indicating that capital and investment continue to favor Bitcoin.

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