Metaplanet Stock Holds 13% Gain As $3.78B Bitcoin Bet Faces Key Test

Key Insights:

• Metaplanet stock trades between ¥388 and ¥478 as Bitcoin controls direction.
• ¥478 breakout could target ¥534 if Bitcoin rises in early 2026.
• A large Bitcoin treasury gives long-term hope, but short-term risk stays high.

Metaplanet stock was trading near ¥405 after dropping 14% in five days, but it still holds a small 13% gain for 2025. The chart now sits in a narrow range where even small moves in Bitcoin can change direction fast.

Traders are watching because the company keeps buying Bitcoin even with unrealized losses. The next leg of price movement depends less on Metaplanet itself and more on whether Bitcoin can recover at the start of 2026.

Metaplanet holds 35,102 Bitcoin, worth about $3.78 billion. The average buy price near $107,606 per Bitcoin means that BTC near $88,000 leaves around $504 million in unrealized losses.

This loss is not final until coins are sold, but it affects sentiment because it shows how much room is needed for breakeven.

In the fourth quarter, the company added 4,279 Bitcoin, worth around $451 million, at an average of $105,412.

This shows the strategy is not short-term. They are building a large balance sheet of Bitcoin for future use, not for quick trading profits. Metaplanet reports a 568.2% Bitcoin yield for 2025.

This is not 568% profit. It means the company increased how much Bitcoin it holds by that percentage. It is a growth in coins, not a growth in dollars.

Public firms now hold about 1.09 million Bitcoin, which is around 5.1%  of the total supply. MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are the most aggressive buyers in this group, and this has pushed both stocks into the spotlight.

If Bitcoin becomes stable or bullish again, demand from these companies could give the market a stronger base than retail traders alone.

For now, the long-term view looks ambitious, and the short-term view still looks difficult. Investors are divided between those who believe this is smart accumulation and those who believe it is too risky at current prices.

The price near ¥405 is a neutral zone. It is not showing strength, but buyers are trying to slow the fall.

The first support sits near ¥388. If Bitcoin weakens again, this level becomes important.

A clean drop below ¥388 increases the chance of seeing ¥335, especially if selling volume rises. These are the levels where price reacted several times in 2025, so traders will watch them again.

The first resistance sits near ¥478. A daily close above ¥478 creates room for ¥534, which is around 13% higher and marks the first sign of a recovery. It would also show that MTPLF stock price is ready to trade with strength instead of reacting to every Bitcoin dip.

If Bitcoin rises again, Metaplanet could move faster once ¥478 breaks. If Bitcoin falls, the stock may not be able to protect ¥388 for long, even with a strong balance sheet.

Where This Leaves Traders Now?

Metaplanet stock trades like a stronger and riskier version of Bitcoin exposure. When Bitcoin moves up, the stock can move up more. When Bitcoin falls, the stock usually reacts harder. This makes it attractive for high-risk traders who want more movement, but uncomfortable for conservative buyers who prefer stable positions.

For now, the stock play stays simple:

• Above ¥478: room opens toward ¥534
• Below ¥388: risk increases toward ¥335
• Between those levels: range, not direction

If Bitcoin turns bullish, Metaplanet stock has a strong case for a rebound. If Bitcoin stays weak, the stock could enter 2026 under pressure even with a large Bitcoin treasury behind it.

The company believes Bitcoin will reward patience, but the chart still needs proof before the trend can change.