If you invested $100 in XRP after Ripple’s first token unlock; Here’s your return now

Ripple’s first major XRP escrow unlock on January 1, 2018, marked a defining moment for the token’s market structure, introducing a predictable supply-release mechanism that has remained in place for years.

At the time of that initial unlock, XRP was trading at approximately $2.20 during the peak of the broader cryptocurrency bull market.

Now, an investor who allocated $100 to XRP on that date would have purchased about 45.45 XRP.

As of press time on January 4, with XRP trading at $2.09, that holding would be valued at roughly $94.55, representing a decline of about 5.5% over seven years.

Ripple unlock mechanism 

Notably, Ripple introduced its escrow mechanism in late 2017, locking 55 billion XRP into time-based contracts to manage supply. Up to 1 billion XRP is unlocked monthly, with much of it typically re-escrowed, aiming to provide a predictable supply and support liquidity. 

While this structure has improved transparency and reduced fears of sudden releases, it has also fueled ongoing concerns about supply pressure and long-term valuation.

Since 2018, XRP’s price has been shaped by both macro and asset-specific factors, including the post-2018 crypto bear market, shifting risk appetite, and regulatory pressure stemming from Ripple’s long-running case with the US SEC. 

Broader market cycles, rising competition in blockchain payments, and adoption trends for Ripple’s cross-border products have also influenced performance.

Despite sharp rallies and deep pullbacks over the years, XRP now trades slightly below its level at the first escrow unlock, leaving early long-term investors with modest nominal losses. 

XRP price analysis 

As things stand, XRP is trading around $2.09, sitting just above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.04, suggesting short-term price action remains relatively stable and mildly supportive.

However, the token remains well below its 200-day SMA near $2.46, highlighting a broader bearish trend and indicating that longer-term momentum has yet to turn decisively positive. This gap between the short- and long-term averages underscores ongoing downside pressure despite recent consolidation.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI stands at around 57, placing XRP firmly in neutral territory. This suggests neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with momentum modestly tilted to the upside but lacking strong conviction.

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