Surviving 2026: Aussie Analysts on How to Filter Financial Noise and Master the Final Cycle

The Pizzino brothers are back and filtering some of the noise in the crypto market with some interesting forecasts.

For his part, Jason Pizzino believes this 2026 is likely to bring broad volatility across equities, housing, cryptocurrencies and metals, while also analysing bearish Bitcoin patterns following the cryptocurrency’s latest peak.

In his outlook, Jason said US housing prices likely peaked around mid-2025 or could reach a top this year, with elevated readings still showing signs of slowing. Under the 18-year framework, housing peaks can precede wider economic weakness by one to two years. 

However, Jason does not expect a US housing crash per se this year, but instead projects choppier conditions and smaller gains. He also mentioned that Australian housing was expected to keep rising but at a slower pace, with smaller cities outperforming major capitals.

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Expect Volatility for H1 2026

For equities, Jason’s forecast called for a volatile first half of 2026 and a steadier rally later in the year, particularly in the fourth quarter, with a tentative S&P 500 target near 7,500 by year-end. It also flagged Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) potentially making new lows below US$120 (AU$184) before any larger rebound.

The outlook also pointed to weakening exchange volumes as a headwind for major altcoins, with non-stablecoin market capitalisation seen falling below US$400 billion (AU$612 billion), and potentially below US$300 billion (AU$459 billion) by 2027.

In a separate segment, Michael Pizzino focused on Bitcoin and crypto prices, stating that BTC has logged three consecutive losing months for the first time in the bull-market cycle, after peaking near US$126K (AU$192K) in October last year.

Reviewing prior cycles, Michael said similar three-month declines after an all-time high often led to a short relief rally of about two months, with the rally’s strength judged by whether it recovered at least half the initial losses. 

Likewise, he said a breakdown below monthly support after such a sequence has frequently preceded extended bear markets, while a stronger rebound, cited as occurring in 2017, was followed by new highs. 

Finally, the analysis highlighted pivot levels including about US$103K (AU$157K) and a “halfway” retracement level described in the video as roughly US$13K (AU$19K), which is pretty rough.

At press time, Bitcoin is currently trading at US$91,933 (AU$136K), a 1.3% increase in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

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