Arthur Hayes: Low Oil Prices Could Trigger a Bitcoin Bull Run

This weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro had been seized and Washington would take control of the country’s oil industry.

The episode has stirred debate across crypto circles, with BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes arguing that cheaper energy and aggressive credit growth could set the stage for higher digital asset prices.

Trump’s Venezuela Move Rattles Geopolitics, Not Crypto Markets

The news broke on January 3, when U.S. officials said Maduro and his wife were taken into custody following attacks in Caracas, a development Trump later discussed in media appearances the same day.

He also said the U.S. would be “strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector, a remark that quickly spread across X and trading desks. Despite the shock value, Bitcoin (BTC) barely flinched, slipping from just under $91,000 to about $89,000 before stabilizing.

By January 4, as more details emerged, the largest cryptocurrency rebounded to a multi-week high near $92,000, adding roughly $3,000 from its post-attack low. Tokens tied to Trump-themed projects also outperformed, reflecting a bout of speculative interest, while traders waited for oil futures to reopen.

On social media, Hayes weighed in with a long post that mixed satire with macro views. Setting aside the theatrics, his core point was simple: U.S. politics, especially ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, are tied closely to economic conditions. In his view, keeping gasoline prices low matters more to voters than most policy debates, and control over Venezuelan supply could help Washington restrain energy costs while expanding credit elsewhere.

This, he believes, could lead to unchecked dollar creation, since, with oil prices suppressed, there will be no market force to compel politicians to “stop printing money.” Hayes said that in such an environment, the price of Bitcoin will rise directly in response to the expansion of dollar liquidity.

The crypto entrepreneur referenced his “USD Liquidity Conditions Index” as evidence of this historical relationship, stating, “Bitcoin’s rise directly results from money printing.” He contrasted this with traditional financial assets like government bonds, which become less attractive if energy costs are high and volatile.

Why Oil and Bitcoin Are Now Tightly Linked

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up about 1% on the day, nearly 7% over the last week, and close to 5% in the past month. The asset traded between $92,000 and $94,600 in the last 24 hours, showing controlled volatility despite the geopolitical noise.

For now, markets appear to be betting that U.S. control of Venezuelan oil will add supply rather than disrupt it. If that assumption holds, Hayes believes loose fiscal policy could continue, lifting risk assets.

However, should crude prices climb, and bond yields follow, the tone could change quickly. Until then, Bitcoin’s calm response suggests traders are focused less on headlines and more on the liquidity picture behind them.

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