Implementation Could Stretch to 2029, TD Cowen Says

• U.S. lawmakers may delay the crypto market structure bill until at least 2027.
• Final crypto rules may not take effect until 2029, according to TD Cowen.
• Conflict-of-interest rules involving senior officials remain the biggest political obstacle.

Efforts to create clear rules for cryptocurrency in the U.S. may take longer than expected. According to investment bank TD Cowen, while lawmakers could move the crypto market structure bill this year, politics in Congress are likely to slow things down. The bill might not pass until 2027, and the rules may not come into effect until 2029.

Conflict-of-Interest Rules Spark Debate

According to reports, one reason is the conflict-of-interest provision that Democrats want to include. This rule would stop senior government officials and their families, including President Donald Trump, from owning or running crypto businesses. TD Cowen’s report says this is a “nonstarter” for Trump unless the provision’s start date is pushed back.

Managing director Jaret Seiberg explained, “Time favors enactment as the problems disappear if the bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029. Crypto would need to accept that the presidential election could impact the final rules, and Democrats would need to accept that the conflict provision will not apply to Trump.”

Trump’s Crypto Interests

Trump’s family has significant crypto interests. Reports show they earned roughly $620 million from projects like stablecoins and bitcoin mining ventures, and even launched TRUMP and MELANIA memecoins. One possible compromise is to delay the conflict-of-interest rule by 3 years, so it would take effect after Trump leaves office.

Elections Could Influence Timing

TD Cowen also opened up about the role of elections. Democrats expect to regain the House in 2026, so there is little incentive to rush the bill now, the report said. On the other hand, staff members have already spent months preparing technical language, meaning a deal could happen faster than expected if political conditions shift.

The goal of the bill is simple: give the U.S. cryptocurrency market clear, fair rules. But until Congress overcomes political hurdles, these rules may remain on hold for several more years.

Related: Bank of America Says Own Bitcoin, Markets Respond With Silence