Managing crowds at Jesus Nazareno’s Traslacion

Two important factors that lead to crowd incidents or disasters, including stampedes, are crowd density and crowd dynamics. Dangerous crowd density is generally defined at around 5–7 persons per square meter. At this level, individuals begin to lose freedom of movement. When this density is combined with dangerous crowd dynamics — such as sudden rushing, pushing, panic, or craze — the result is a highly unstable and potentially deadly situation.

During the Traslacion of Jesus Nazareno, the crowd clearly exceeds critical density thresholds, often reaching more than seven persons per square meter, particularly near the andas. The crowd also deliberately engages in what would normally be classified as dangerous movements: rushing, pushing, and forcefully advancing just to get closer to the andas or to touch the rope, which is believed by many devotees to be miraculous.

In ordinary mass gatherings — such as spectator events, concerts, or festivals — the combination of extreme density and sudden movement would almost certainly result in a stampede or crowd crush.

Why a stampede does not usually occur

This raises a critical question from a crowd management perspective: Why does a large-scale stampede not usually occur during the Traslacion?

After observing the Traslacion for three consecutive years, I have noted that the participants — particularly the debotos and mamamasan — are, in effect, simulating dangerous crowd conditions (high density combined with intense movement). However, this simulation is not accidental; it is part of how the tradition itself operates.

The pushing and shoving observed during the procession are not random acts of panic. They are expected and socially accepted maneuvers, understood by participants as necessary actions to move closer to the andas or the rope. Over the years, I coined the term “choreographed craze” or “choreographed stampede” to describe this phenomenon.

Most of the active participants are men who have physically prepared themselves through years of joining the procession. Their bodies are conditioned to endure prolonged pressure, imbalance, and physical contact. However, this also means that individuals who are weak, inexperienced, or physically unprepared are at a much higher risk of being injured or crushed in such an environment.

A unique crowd culture

The Traslacion crowd has unique crowd dynamics that are known to its participants and passed on through generations. When viewed on television or social media, the scene appears reckless — almost riot-like and completely chaotic. But within the crowd, devotees use their own lingo, commands, signals, and movement patterns to regulate behavior and maintain direction.

This internal coordination is why the term choreography is appropriate. While it may not be formally organized, it is a learned system of movement that allows the crowd to function under extreme conditions.

The risk is always present

Despite this informal order, it would be dangerous to assume that a stampede is impossible. It is not. A highly dense crowd is inherently unstable. A sudden disruption — such as a fallen participant, an obstruction, or a movement that goes against the intended flow of the procession — can cause the crowd to collapse, resulting in a domino effect or crushing forces similar to what occurred in the Itaewon crowd disaster in South Korea.

The risk becomes even greater during emergency scenarios. If a threat triggers panic — causing people to move away from danger instead of toward the andas — a tightly packed crowd attempting to escape simultaneously can easily result in a stampede during evacuation.

Recommendations

To reduce risk while respecting the religious and cultural significance of the Traslacion, the following measures are essential:

1. Participants must strictly follow the instructions of their group leaders, Church authorities, and government officials. Any deviation from this established crowd management approach may result in serious crowd safety issues.
   
2. Evacuation routes, extraction points, and safe havens must be clearly identified and positioned throughout the entire procession route.
   
3. A comprehensive emergency response plan should be in place, including Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) management, supported by a clear command-and-control structure using the Incident Command System (ICS). The many emergency responders who volunteer annually must be formally integrated into this system.
   
4. Authorities must have an event stoppage protocol, with clearly defined criteria that allow the procession to be halted in the event of imminent danger.

The Traslacion is not simply a chaotic mass gathering; it is a complex, high-risk event shaped by faith, tradition, and learned crowd behavior. Understanding its unique dynamics is essential — not to judge the devotion of participants, but to ensure that life and safety are protected. – Rappler.com

Martin Aguda Jr., CEM, is a safety and emergency management professional with internationally recognized certifications in crowd management. He has extensive experience managing crowds in major mass gatherings across the Philippines, and is an instructor on crowd management, event safety, and contingency planning for local government units and security and safety organizations.