Bitcoin Crash Fear Fades as Analyst Warns of a New and Unsettling Market Reality

• Bitcoin crash fears fade as institutional holders tighten long-term supply
• Analyst warns stability may replace volatility, limiting major upside moves
• Sticky Bitcoin supply shifts market from fear to prolonged stagnation

Bitcoin market expectations are shifting as crash fears gradually lose relevance, with recent analysis pointing to a structural change in how the market absorbs pressure. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, a 50% Bitcoin decline no longer fits current conditions because older warning signals fail to reflect present ownership dynamics.

In previous cycles, traders relied heavily on exchange inflows and whale movements, which often preceded fear-driven selloffs. However, Ju noted that this approach has weakened significantly as long-term holders now control a larger share of circulating supply.

A key example remains Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, which holds about 673,000 BTC and shows no willingness to exit. As a result, available Bitcoin supply stays locked for extended periods, reducing the likelihood of sudden capitulation events.

Also Read: $2.22B Crypto Options Expiry Puts Bitcoin at a Crossroads as Volatility Looms

Institutional control reshapes Bitcoin volatility

Ju stressed that institutional dominance has reshaped Bitcoin’s volatility profile, with large holders absorbing shocks that once triggered cascading liquidations. Consequently, price movements now lack the emotional extremes seen in earlier bear markets, as fear-driven selloffs struggle to gain traction.

Still, reduced volatility does not signal strong upside momentum, as Ju warned that restrained supply also limits rapid price appreciation. Liquidity remains present across global markets; however, capital has shifted toward equities and commodities such as gold and silver.

This rotation leaves Bitcoin trading within a narrow range, where sideways movement replaces dramatic rallies and crashes. Ju also pointed to the declining relevance of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, noting that structural changes make historical patterns harder to replicate.

Realized cap data signals patience, not panic

To reinforce his view, Ju highlighted realized capitalization trends, which reflect the aggregate cost basis of coins in circulation. Since early 2024, realized cap growth has remained intact, suggesting holders remain confident despite muted spot prices. Additionally, coins continue changing hands at higher average costs, a pattern that reflects accumulation rather than speculative exits.

Selling pressure from short-term traders remains limited, while long-term conviction continues to dominate market behavior. For bearish participants, this structure presents clear risks, as Ju warned that short positions now offer limited downside potential. Bitcoin’s resistance to crashing does not reflect overheating, but instead shows a structure that constrains both sharp declines and explosive rallies.

Stability replaces fear but tests market patience

Bitcoin’s current state reflects maturity rather than weakness, as institutional ownership continues to dampen volatility and absorb supply shocks. However, this stability introduces a different challenge, since extended sideways movement risks draining interest and reducing speculative participation.

Without fresh liquidity entering the crypto sector, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, frustrating momentum traders while reassuring long-term holders. The fading fear of a crash therefore carries an unsettling tradeoff, as Bitcoin avoids collapse but loses the excitement of sharp moves.

Ki Young Ju’s assessment describes a market shaped by restraint rather than emotion, where Bitcoin resists chaos through long-term structural conviction.

Also Read:  Anthropic seeks $10B funding as valuation jumps toward $350B on strong AI demand

The post Bitcoin Crash Fear Fades as Analyst Warns of a New and Unsettling Market Reality appeared first on 36Crypto.