Bitcoin’s repeated failures below $100,000 have sparked debate. However, analysts argue the delay has little to do with fear or psychological resistance.
Instead, market structure is playing the dominant role, with derivatives mechanics dictating price behavior more than sentiment.
According to David Eng’s analysis, the current ceiling is being enforced by concentrated options rather than by buyer hesitation.
Approximately $231 million in call gamma is concentrated at the $100,000, $105,000, and $110,000 levels. As Bitcoin approaches these strikes, traders are forced to sell spot Bitcoin to remain delta-neutral.
This selling is mechanical, not directional, and stems mainly from institutions overwriting calls to generate yield. Each rally toward the strike prices, therefore, triggers automatic supply.
As it stands, an estimated $30 million in net buying is needed to push the price toward $95,000, while reaching $100,000 would require roughly $463 million. That means a fifteenfold increase in capital for only a modest percentage gain, explaining why upside momentum repeatedly stalls.
However, this pressure is temporary. A large portion of the gamma exposure is set to expire over the coming weeks. Around 11% rolls off on January 16, which could loosen dealer hedging activity. Moreover, a bigger shift is expected on January 30, when approximately 43% of the total gamma expires.
As this exposure unwinds, the forced selling that has capped price action should fade, allowing Bitcoin to be driven again by organic spot flows through February and March.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently attempting to reclaim its 2025 yearly open. Analyst Ted Pillows notes that several daily closes above this zone would materially improve the odds of a breakout toward 100,000 within weeks. However, a failure could send the price back toward the 90,000-91,000 support area.
At press time, market conditions are constructive but cautious. Bitcoin is up 1% over the past 24 hours and nearly 7% on the week, supported by ETF inflows exceeding $4.1 billion since May 2025 and continued corporate accumulation.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/when-does-bitcoin-break-the-100000-ceiling-analyst-shares-expected-timeline/
