VanEck Predicts Risk-On Q1 Environment With Cautious Bitcoin Outlook

TLDR

• VanEck predicts Q1 2026 will be a risk-on environment for investors due to improved fiscal visibility and monetary policy clarity
• US fiscal deficits are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from COVID-era highs, helping stabilize long-term interest rates
• Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle broke in 2025, leading VanEck to adopt a cautious 3-6 month outlook for the cryptocurrency
• VanEck CEO Jan van Eck groups crypto with AI, gold, and India as sectors that have reset into more compelling investment opportunities
• Analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 within ten days if it breaks above $92,000

Global investment firm VanEck released its Q1 2026 outlook on January 12, predicting increased investor confidence in the first three months of the year. The firm cites improved fiscal visibility and monetary policy clarity as key drivers for the positive forecast.

VanEck stated that markets are now operating with something investors have lacked in recent years: visibility. This clarity extends to fiscal policy, monetary direction, and major investment themes.

The firm pointed to gradual improvements in the US fiscal picture as one of the most important developments for markets. While deficits remain elevated, they are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from the historic highs reached during the COVID period.

This fiscal stabilization is helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck grouped digital assets alongside AI, private credit, gold, and India as sectors that have reset into more compelling opportunities.

The outlook comes as the S&P 500 sits at 6,966 and 10-year Treasury yields stand at 4.20%. Federal Reserve Governor John Williams stated on the same day that policy is well positioned given the current outlook.

Bitcoin Cycle Breaks from Historical Pattern

VanEck expressed a more cautious view on Bitcoin specifically. The firm noted that Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle broke in 2025, complicating short-term signals.

The company stated this divergence supports a more cautious near-term outlook over the next three to six months. However, VanEck acknowledged that this view was not unanimous within the firm, with some executives remaining more constructive on the immediate cycle.

Bitcoin has decoupled from stock and gold markets in recent months following a massive deleveraging event in October. The cryptocurrency had tapped the $92,000 level early Tuesday morning in Asia after dipping to the low $90,000 area on Monday.

Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph the outlook is more medium-term than focused on immediate events. He noted Bitcoin is rising in a low-leverage environment, suggesting much of last year’s excess has been removed.

D’Anethan said many indicators are in deep oversold territory and edging to get back up. He added that geopolitical uncertainty and broadly bullish sentiment on risk assets seem to favor crypto as it plays catch-up.

Midterm Elections Could Boost Risk Assets

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that the market trajectory for the first half of 2026 has become relatively clear following late 2025 fluctuations. With US midterm elections approaching, both fiscal and financial conditions are expected to further favor risk assets.

Sun stated that fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a risk-on macroeconomic window in the first half of 2026. In such an environment, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market stand to benefit.

Crypto investor Will Clemente commented that this environment is what Bitcoin was created for. He noted the President is coming after the Fed chair, metals are rising as sovereigns diversify reserves, stocks and risk assets are at record highs, and geopolitical risk is rising.

MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe predicted Bitcoin will reclaim six figures before the end of January. He observed there has been no dip below the 21-day moving average with buyers stepping in to accumulate Bitcoin at these regions.

Van de Poppe stated that a clear move above $92,000 will result in $100,000 in a maximum of ten days. Bitcoin was trading around $92,000 at the time of the report’s publication.

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