Sustainable aviation fuel could push airfares up 40%

• SAF can cut emissions by 80%
• Cost an ongoing problem
• Prices twice those of normal fuel

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) could force airline ticket prices up by as much as 40 percent, an industry expert has warned, with the greener alternative unlikely to match the cost of conventional jet fuel until around 2050.

The aviation sector accounts for 2.5 percent of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency, and will require almost $3.2 trillion of investment to reach net zero by 2050, according to estimates from the International Civil Aviation Organization.

The net zero by 2050 target, derived from the 2015 UN Paris climate agreement, refers to the goal of balancing greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide, with removals so total emissions fall to zero by mid-century.

SAF is central to that effort. The fuel can cut lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80 percent and is expected to deliver around 65 percent of the emissions reductions needed for the sector to meet its 2050 target, according to the International Air Transport Association. 

The problem is cost. The International Air Transport Association says that SAF prices in 2025 were more than double those of conventional jet fuel, rising to as much as five times higher in markets where usage is mandated, such as the EU and the UK.

“In our view, the 2050 target is achievable and by that date we could have prices that are really affordable for airlines and operations,” said Mohamed Khalifa Rahma, director of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s air transport bureau, speaking on the sidelines of the annual International Renewable Energy Agency assembly in Abu Dhabi. 

Emirates

A global aviation decarbonisation framework agreed in Dubai in 2023 includes a target to cut industry emissions by 5 percent by 2030.

“We need to accelerate the production and deployment of SAF to meet this goal,” Rahma said.

The International Air Transport Association estimates that SAF output in 2025 would reach 1.9 million tonnes (2.4 billion litres), double the 1 million tonnes produced in 2024, but still only 0.6 percent of total jet fuel consumption.

At current price levels, the SAF premium translates into an additional $3.6 billion in fuel costs for the industry in 2025.

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Ahmed Badr, director of project facilitation and support at the International Renewable Energy Agency, said widespread use of SAF at current prices would translate directly into higher fares.

“Ticket prices would go up by around 40 percent,” he said. “It’s something people cannot afford.”

The UAE plans to supply its airlines with 1 percent domestically made SAF by 2031 and produce 700 million litres annually. Airlines Etihad Airways and Emirates, oil company Adnoc and several government entities formed a national consortium in 2023 to advance SAF development. 

Emirates has begun receiving SAF from oil refiner Neste at Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport and signed a deal with Shell in 2024 for deliveries into Dubai Airport. In November 2025, the carrier signed a partnership with oil company Enoc to explore joint SAF initiatives in Dubai.

“I think there is very little SAF around the world in any airport that we operate to today,” Emirates chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said in an interview in November. “We are always going to be a buyer of SAF if it is available.”

The Emirates Airline chief said last year that passengers will ultimately determine whether the aviation industry can afford to go green, suggesting higher fares might result from environmentally friendlier fuel.

“If you want a certain product, then you have to pay for it,” he said at the Dubai Airshow in November when asked whether travellers would be willing to shoulder higher fares tied to sustainable energy. 

“I’m sorry to say that, but that’s the way it is.”