Why Persistent ETF Demand Could Trigger Next Bitcoin Parabolic Move: Bitwise CIO

• Bitcoin ETFs absorb over 100% of new supply, but existing holder selling prevents price surge.
• Gold took three years to go parabolic after central bank demand doubled, rising 65% in 2025.
• Persistent ETF demand could exhaust Bitcoin sellers and trigger a parabolic rally, says Hougan

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has outlined a compelling scenario for Bitcoin’s next major price rally. According to Hougan, sustained ETF demand could trigger a parabolic move similar to gold’s recent surge.

The crypto executive shared his analysis on social media this week. He drew direct comparisons between Bitcoin’s current market dynamics and gold’s price action over the past three years.

ETF Demand Absorbs New Bitcoin Supply

Since their debut in January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have been purchasing more than 100% of newly mined coins. Hougan emphasized this critical supply-demand imbalance in his post.

However, prices haven’t skyrocketed yet. Existing Bitcoin holders have been willing to sell into this demand. The CIO believes this selling pressure won’t last forever.

“If ETF demand persists – and I think it will – eventually, these sellers will run out of ammo,” Hougan stated. When that happens, he suggests prices could surge dramatically.

Gold’s Three-Year Journey Offers Blueprint

Hougan used gold’s recent performance to illustrate his thesis. Central banks ramped up gold purchases in 2022 after the US seized Russian Treasury deposits. Annual buying jumped from roughly 500 tonnes to 1,000 tonnes.

Yet gold prices didn’t immediately reflect this demand shift. The precious metal gained just 2% in 2022. Returns improved to 13% in 2023 and 27% in 2024.

Then 2025 arrived. Gold prices went parabolic, surging 65% and crossing $4,000 per ounce. World Gold Council data confirms this dramatic acceleration.

The delayed response occurred because sellers initially met the central bank’s demand. Only after existing holders exhausted their supply did prices explode upward.

Bitcoin Technical Setup Points to Imminent Decision

Meanwhile, technical analyst Crypto Patel highlighted Bitcoin’s current price structure. BTC is compressing between the neckline resistance at $94,000 and the rising trendline support.

A breakout above $94,000 could target $105,000 to $106,000. Rejection at resistance might pull prices back to the $89,000 support. A breakdown below that level could open risk toward $76,000.

CoinGecko data shows Bitcoin trading at $93,569.89 with a 24-hour volume exceeding $50 billion. The cryptocurrency has gained 2.21% over both the past day and week.

Hougan’s framework suggests patience may be key. Just as gold took three years before its parabolic phase, Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rally might still be building.

The question remains whether demand will persist long enough to deplete seller reserves.

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