Wintermute Calls End of Four-Year Crypto Cycle, Flags 2026 Triggers

The familiar four-year boom-and-bust pattern in cryptocurrency may have ended, according to trading firm Wintermute.

In a recent analysis, the firm argued that market performance is now dictated by institutional capital flows rather than historical narratives tied to Bitcoin’s halving events.

This shift means a broad market recovery in 2026 is not guaranteed and hinges on specific catalysts that can redirect concentrated liquidity.

A New Market Structure Takes Hold

Wintermute’s assessment stated that the “four-year cycle is dead.” The firm bases this on its own over-the-counter trading data from 2025, which showed a breakdown in the traditional pattern where capital from Bitcoin gains would flow into Ethereum, then to other major tokens, and finally to smaller altcoins. Instead, 2025 became a year of “extreme concentration.”

The introduction of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while bringing sustained demand for those assets, created what Wintermute calls “walled gardens.” New institutional liquidity remained largely confined to a handful of large-cap assets and did not rotate into the wider crypto market.

This dynamic contributed to short-lived altcoin rallies, which averaged just 20 days in 2025 compared to 60 days in 2024, according to the firm. At the same time, retail investor attention was often directed toward equity markets in areas like artificial intelligence (AI), leaving the crypto market without a key source of fresh capital.

Paths to a Broader Recovery

For the market to expand beyond its current concentrated state in 2026, Wintermute identified three necessary triggers. The first is a widening of ETF and digital asset trust (DAT) mandates to include more cryptocurrencies.

The firm has noted early signs of this, including filings for Solana and XRP ETFs. As of the end of last week, spot XRP ETFs had resumed a streak of net inflows after a brief pause, according to data from SoSoValue.

According to Wintermute, the second path is strong price performance from BTC or ETH themselves. A major rally in either could generate a wealth effect that spills over into other digital assets, reviving the capital transmission last seen in 2024. Analysts are debating the likelihood of this, with some, like Egrag Crypto, assigning a 55-65% chance of a positive year for Bitcoin if it maintains key price levels.

The third, and deemed least likely, catalyst is a return of retail investor “mindshare” to crypto from other speculative asset classes, which would bring new capital inflows and stablecoin minting.

Data from Santiment shows underlying network growth is possible even without immediate price spikes, as Ethereum set a record for new wallet creation on January 11, 2026, with 393,600 new addresses in a day, driven by lower fees and stablecoin usage.

The overall direction for 2026, as framed by Wintermute and echoed by commentators, will be determined by whether one of these triggers can successfully broaden liquidity. Changes in the market’s structure now depend on capital flow dynamics, not a predictable historical clock, for future performance.

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