HBAR Price Breakout Near $0.10 Faces 94% Sentiment Crash

HBAR price is trying to stabilize, but the rebound is losing strength. The token is up about 7% since January 20, yet it remains down nearly 8% over the past seven days. More importantly, the structure supporting a bullish breakout is starting to weaken beneath the surface.

The W-shaped recovery pattern is still intact for now. But capital flows, sentiment, and whale behavior are no longer aligned the way they need to be for a clean upside continuation.

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Weak Capital Flows Raise Early Doubts Over the Breakout Structure

HBAR price is still trading inside a W pattern on the daily chart. This pattern forms when the price makes two similar lows, showing buyers stepping in twice at the same level. The breakout theory could hold if the HBAR price crosses the neckline above $0.135.

The issue is what is happening under the pattern.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is turning lower. CMF tracks whether big money (institutions, ETFs, and whales) is flowing into or out of an asset using price and volume. During the rebound, CMF briefly moved above zero, showing fresh inflows. That signal has now faded.

CMF has slipped back below zero and is pressing against its rising trendline that has held since late December. This suggests capital is starting to leave Hedera, even though the price has not yet broken support.

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Whale behavior reinforces that caution. All large holder groups have mostly held their balances, but they have not added meaningfully during the dip. When whales expect a breakout to follow through, they usually accumulate into weakness.

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Their hesitation suggests uncertainty rather than confidence. Plus, if CMF breaks the trendline, the next set of capital outflow could be from the whales.

Dip Buying Holds $0.102, but Sentiment Has Collapsed Sharply

Despite weakening capital flows, the HBAR price has not broken down yet. The reason is dip buying.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), often a dip-buying proxy, has been trending higher while the price trended lower since late December. MFI measures buying and selling pressure using both price and volume. This bullish divergence shows buyers stepping in on dips rather than exiting in panic. That behavior explains why the $0.102 support level has held repeatedly.

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But dip buying alone cannot sustain a breakout if confidence fades. More so when Hedera whales haven’t been buying those dips.

Market sentiment has deteriorated aggressively. Since January 19, positive sentiment has collapsed from around 29 to roughly 1.5, a drop of more than 94% in just a few days, the lowest monthly level.

This matters because sentiment has already shown its impact on price earlier this month. Between January 6 and January 12, positive sentiment fell from about 20.8 to near 10.4. During that same window, HBAR price dropped from roughly $0.132 to $0.114, a decline of about 14%.

The current sentiment drop is far steeper than that earlier episode. If the relationship holds, price pressure could intensify quickly once dip buyers step aside, or the CMF outflows offset their contribution. Plus, the indifferent whales might use this sentiment trigger as a reason to dump.

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HBAR Price Levels That Decide Whether the Story Breaks or Survives

Everything now hinges on a narrow range.

As long as the HBAR price holds $0.102 on a daily close, the W pattern remains technically valid. A decisive break below this level would invalidate the structure and expose downside toward $0.094 first. If selling accelerates, $0.073 becomes a realistic downside target.

On the upside, the breakout case requires a shift in behavior. CMF must reclaim the zero line, sentiment needs to stabilize, and price must reclaim the $0.118 to $0.124 zone. Without those changes, the $0.135 neckline remains out of reach, and so does the 31% breakout hope.

For now, the HBAR price is holding. But the breakout story is weakening. If capital keeps flowing out and sentiment remains this fragile, the $0.102 level stops being support and starts becoming a final test.