China sets lower 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% amid slowing economy

China will aim for a lower economic growth target for 2026 than 2025, with growth of between 4.5% and 5%, people familiar with the matter told the South China Morning Post.

The government has not yet officially announced the target, which is expected to be revealed at the National People’s Congress in March 2026. Economists and officials say the proposed range suggests policymakers are preparing for slower growth compared with last year.

China’s economy actually grew in 2025, even though growth has been sluggish in some areas. China’s shift to a lower target reflects this trend and the difficulties it now faces in balancing its economic performance with deeper structural problems.

Why is China setting a lower target?

China’s official economic growth for 2025 came in at 5%, matching the government’s target. However, that number obscures some crucial shifts in the economy’s growth. Exports accounted for much of the growth, offsetting weaker domestic activity, such as consumer demand and business investment. In the last quarter of 2025, growth slowed to about 4.5%, the weakest quarterly pace in more than two years. This was evidence that China’s economy was losing steam late in the year. People did not spend much, which contributed to the economic slowdown.

Households were wary of letting money get out of control and did not want to buy high-priced items, such as cars or houses. Businesses also invested less, especially in real estate. And government efforts to support the property sector have not worked well, so the sector has remained weak.

In 2025, exports were strong, partly due to China finding buyers outside traditional markets, and trade tensions eased with some countries compared with earlier years. Yet an over-reliance on exports means growth hasn’t been uniform and may leave the economy open to a downturn in global demand. In 2026, the reality shows that a more moderate, steady, and balanced growth model from Chinese leadership is feasible. This was seen in the notion of a growth range rather than a single number, which enables policymakers to shape expectations and remain flexible.

Implications for China’s 2026 economy

Setting a target range of 4.5% to 5% growth for 2026 signals that China’s leaders see slower growth as likely, while still wanting to support the economy. A lower target also aligns with China’s broader economic strategy, which emphasizes higher-quality growth rather than just fast growth.

Experts say part of the reason for slower growth is structural issues – long-term economic challenges that cannot be fixed quickly. These include a declining birth rate and shrinking workforce, a long slump in the property market, and the need to shift the economy from investment-led growth toward more consumption and services.

As China prepares to launch its new 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), policymakers will also try to promote sectors such as technology, services, and domestic consumption to reduce reliance on exports and investment.

Financial institutions and international organisations have also independently forecast slower growth for China in 2026.

Investors and companies around the world will be watching to see how China supports its economy through policies on taxation, spending, interest rates, and reforms to boost private sector activity.

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