Gold (XAU/USD) is witnessing heavy liquidation for the second straight day on Friday, following the parabolic rise of more than 25% since the beginning of this month and a series of record highs set over the past two weeks or so. The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction amid the optimism over a Senate deal to fund the federal government through the remainder of the fiscal year. This helps ease near-term political uncertainty and turns out to be a key factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal.
However, the risk of the Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence, along with prospects for lower US interest rates, might keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation and support the lower-yielding Gold. Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and persistent geopolitical uncertainties might continue to weigh on investors’ sentiment, which should further contribute to limiting losses for the bullion. This warrants some caution before confirming that the XAU/USD pair has topped out.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold is pressured by the optimism over the government funding deal, modest USD strength
- Democrats and the White House have struck a deal to temporarily fund the Department of Homeland Security as lawmakers rush to pass the spending package by Friday to avoid a partial US government shutdown. The US Dollar gets a minor boost in reaction to the news, prompting fresh selling around the Gold during the Asian session on Friday.
- Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he wanted to avoid using military force against Iran, further boosting investors’ confidence. Market players, however, remain on edge amid Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Canada-made aircraft until American-made Gulfstream jets receive certification in Canada.
- Trump took another jab at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and said on Truth Social that the US central bank should substantially lower interest rates. The Fed, however, resisted the unprecedented political pressure and decided to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday while signaling that it would continue to adopt a cautious approach.
- Trump said that he will announce his choice to replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair on Friday morning amid the rising probability of Kevin Warsh’s appointment. Nevertheless, investors remain worried about the freedom of monetary authorities from direct political interference in formulating policies, which should cap any further USD gains.
- On the geopolitical front, the US continues to deploy warships and fighter jets across the Middle East. Adding to this, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that America is fully prepared to act decisively under President Trump’s orders. This, in turn, raises the risk of a military confrontation and could also benefit the safe-haven commodity.
- Separately, Russia had reiterated its invitation for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to come to Moscow for peace talks, though a deal remains elusive amid profound differences between the two countries’ negotiating stances. In fact, Ukraine outright rejected Russia’s demand to cede all of the Donbas region to end the nearly four-year war.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), due later during the North American session. Apart from this, comments from influential FOMC members and the new Fed chair announcement will play a key role in driving the USD demand, which, in turn, should provide a fresh impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.
Gold needs to break through the ascending trend line and $5,100 to back case for further losses
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line on the 4-hour chart has slipped below the Signal line, and both stand beneath zero; the widening negative histogram suggests building bearish pressure. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 50 tempers conviction, keeping momentum balanced near key supports. A rising trend line from $4,526.24 underpins the structure, offering support at $5,174.74; a sustained bounce from that area could reassert the recovery, while a close below it would expose deeper retracement levels.
Measured from the $4,261.33 low to the $5,594.20 high, the 38.2% retracement at $5,085.05 offers first support, with the 50% retracement at $4,927.77 below. If bears press through trend-line support, focus would shift to the 38.2% retracement, while a recovery could target the 23.6% retracement at $5,279.64; with MACD weak and RSI neutral, upside would need improving momentum to overcome nearby barriers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-declines-as-government-funding-deal-boosts-usd-and-prompts-profit-taking-202601300444
