ICP Weekly Analysis Feb 4

ICP is positioned at the $2.71 level with a limited weekly rise of 1.34%, the main downtrend structure remains intact, and critical support zones are being tested. While the market structure gives weak momentum signals, BTC pressure requires a cautious approach for altcoins.

ICP in the Weekly Market Summary

ICP spent the week in a narrow $2.55 – $2.79 range and showed a limited recovery closing at $2.71 on Friday. Although the weekly change is +1.34%, the primary trend continues as a downtrend; RSI at 34.74 indicates low momentum, while MACD maintains bearish signals with a negative histogram. The volume profile is mediocre at $86.43M, and BTC’s -2.65% decline across the market is pressuring altcoins. In the bigger picture, ICP is trading near the lower band of the long-term descending channel, and while accumulation phase signals are being sought, distribution risk remains high.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

ICP’s long-term trend structure shows a clear downtrend character on weekly and monthly charts. The price continues to stay below EMA20 ($3.12) and EMA50 levels, confirming the bearish bias. The market structure failed to recover from previous lows without forming higher highs and lows; this indicates the trend remains solid. Since it was rejected at the upper band of the main channel at $3.60 resistance, a close above this level is required for trend breakdown. Momentum indicators (RSI 34.74, MACD bearish) are approaching the oversold zone, but there is no divergence, and trend filters are bearish.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis shows mild accumulation features in the current structure, but distribution pressure dominates. On the weekly volume profile, around $2.63 stands out as the POC (Point of Control) and could be a potential accumulation base (score 67/100). However, rejection at the upper band of $2.79 and low-volume rise indicate that smart money has started selling. According to Wyckoff methodology, we may be in the secondary test phase; if $2.47 support breaks, the markdown phase will accelerate. Accumulation requires volume increase and BTC stabilization; otherwise, distribution patterns (similar to head & shoulders) may form.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, ICP is consolidating around $2.71; out of 11 strong levels, there are 2 supports/2 resistances confluence on 1D. The price is stuck between $2.63 support and $2.71 resistance (scores: support 67/100, resistance 62/100). RSI at 34.74 is near oversold, but the MACD histogram is expanding negatively. Short-term EMA crossovers are bearish, and Supertrend gives a sell signal on daily. For an upside breakout, a close above $2.79 is needed; testing $2.63 below is critical.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, the risk of touching the lower band of the downtrend channel ($2.47) is increasing; 1W timeframe is resistance-heavy with 2 supports/4 resistances (major R: $2.93). The price continues to stay below EMA20, preserving the trend’s solidity. With declining volume, the bear market phase continues. Confluence forms a strong support cluster in the $2.47 – $2.63 zone; if held, bounce probability increases, but it remains fragile under BTC’s downtrend.

Critical Decision Points

The main levels that will determine market direction are as follows: Major supports $2.4737 (score 82/100, multi-TF confluence), $2.6347 (67/100). Resistances $2.7133 (62/100, first test above current price), $2.9340 (60/100). Staying above $2.47 is essential for the trend to remain intact; in case of breakdown, $0.4655 downside risk (score 22). Upside target $4.2130 (score 25), but limited by high resistance density. These levels should be monitored as entry/exit pivots for position traders. For detailed spot data, check the ICP Spot Analysis.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

The bullish scenario activates with a daily close above $2.7133 resistance; initial target $2.9340, then channel upper band $3.60 and strategic $4.2130. R/R ratio around 1:2.5, stop-loss below $2.63. Wait for volume increase to confirm accumulation phase, manage long positions with partial scale-in. For futures markets, follow ICP Futures Analysis.

In Bearish Case

The bearish scenario triggers with a close below $2.4737 support; first target extension below $2.47, then channel lower band and $0.4655 risk level. Enter short positions from $2.71 resistance, stop above $2.79. If distribution patterns strengthen, momentum will accelerate; keep position sizing low. Since the main trend is down, short bias is forefront.

Bitcoin Correlation

ICP is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC is in downtrend at $76,067 level (24h -2.65%) and Supertrend gives bearish signal. If BTC supports at $75,399, $72,903 break, pressure on ICP to $2.47 will increase with cascade effect. Resistances $77,776, $82,178; if BTC recovers, room opens for ICP bounce, but rising dominance crushes altcoins. ICP longs are risky without BTC stabilization; monitor dominance. For other analyses, see ICP and other analyses.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week’s focus: Closings in the $2.47 – $2.71 range will determine trend direction. BTC break below 75k is a red flag for ICP, above 77k is green light. Volume and RSI divergence are key for accumulation confirmation; position traders stay R/R focused, avoid early entries. In macro silence, technical confluence dominates.