Dogecoin Price Outlook: ETF Bets and Whale Moves Could Ignite a Rally

Ali Martinez, a widely followed crypto strategist, noted that DOGE is consolidating within a triangle formation, typically a precursor to sharp volatility. According to him, the pattern could spark a 40% price swing in either direction.

Block Reward Cut Proposal

A new proposal on GitHub has reignited debate around Dogecoin’s long-standing inflationary model. Developers are weighing a potential 90% cut in block rewards, which would slash annual issuance from 5 billion DOGE to just 500 million. Supporters argue this change would reduce inflation from around 3.3% to under 0.5%, making DOGE more attractive to long-term investors.

Critics, however, warn that drastically lower rewards could push miners out, undermining network security. Given Dogecoin’s 11-year history of fixed monetary policy, core developers stress that implementing such a shift would be a long and uncertain process.

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ETF & Regulatory Catalysts

Momentum for a DOGE exchange-traded fund (ETF) is building, with filings from Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise currently under SEC review. Prediction market Polymarket gives a 73% chance of approval by October 2025. If greenlit, the ETF could attract institutional flows similar to Bitcoin’s $151 billion ETF inflows that fueled a 160% rally.

At the same time, Europe’s MiCA framework could impose stricter rules on meme coins, adding compliance hurdles that might slow adoption. The outcome of SEC deliberations will likely be decisive for DOGE’s near-term trajectory.

Whale Accumulation and Technicals

Whale investors continue to double down, adding over $200 million in DOGE during August, with open interest now exceeding $3 billion. Technically, Dogecoin is locked in a symmetrical triangle between $0.22 and $0.25. The RSI is neutral around 46, while MACD momentum remains flat.

If DOGE breaks above $0.25, Martinez suggests it could rally as high as $0.33, representing a 40% surge. Conversely, a rejection at resistance risks a retest of the $0.19 support zone, where the 200-day EMA currently sits.

Outlook

Dogecoin’s future now hinges on whether institutional demand through ETFs can outweigh structural risks tied to its inflation model. Reduced block rewards may strengthen DOGE’s long-term case, but miner resistance and regulatory uncertainty remain pressing hurdles.

As Martinez highlights, the consolidation phase won’t last forever. Whether DOGE explodes upward or faces another drop depends largely on the SEC’s ETF decision this fall and how whales react in the coming weeks.

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