JPMorgan Cuts Coinbase Price Target by 27% Ahead of Thursday Earnings

TLDR

• Coinbase’s stock has dropped over 50% since October’s bitcoin record, including a 27% decline in 2026.
• JPMorgan lowered its price target for Coinbase to $290, down from $399, ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report.
• Despite the price target cut, JPMorgan still sees a 75% upside for Coinbase from its current price of $165.5.
• JPMorgan’s projections show a decline in adjusted EBITDA from $801 million to $734 million, mainly due to lower trading volumes and weaker crypto prices.
• Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish reduced his estimates for Coinbase, forecasting weaker retail trading and blockchain rewards revenue.

Coinbase (COIN) has seen its stock decline by over 50% since the bitcoin record high in early October. The exchange’s troubles are set to continue, as JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington reduced his price target for Coinbase to $290, down from $399. The revised target comes ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for Thursday.

JPMorgan Cuts Price Target for Coinbase

JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington lowered his price target on Coinbase to $290, reflecting concerns over the exchange’s performance. The new target, while still indicating 75% upside from Coinbase’s current price of $165.5, shows the difficulties the company is facing. According to Worthington, lower trading volumes and weakened crypto prices have significantly impacted Coinbase’s financial performance in the last quarter.

Worthington’s revised projections include a decline in adjusted EBITDA, down from $801 million in Q3 to $734 million. He attributes this decline to sluggish trading activity and lower USDC stablecoin balances. Despite these challenges, Worthington still expects the company’s future performance to improve, driven by contributions from Coinbase’s recent acquisition of Deribit.

Lower Projections from Other Analysts

Other analysts also revised their expectations for Coinbase’s earnings, with Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish lowering his estimates. Budish projected a weaker retail trading environment and lower blockchain rewards revenue, which led him to reduce his adjusted EBITDA forecasts. His estimates for Coinbase’s exchange volume stood at around $261 billion, roughly 10% below consensus.

Compass Point’s Ed Engel adopted a more bearish stance on Coinbase, anticipating disappointment in the subscription and services segment. Engel expects that trading activity for January will show some of the lowest retail engagement since Q3 2024. He emphasized that overall revenue remains tied to fluctuations in crypto prices, further contributing to the pressure on Coinbase’s stock.

Focus on Earnings Report and Future Outlook

As Coinbase prepares to release its earnings after market close on Thursday, investors are paying close attention to the company’s outlook. Key factors for consideration include early 2026 trading activity, the future of USDC-related income, and whether Coinbase’s newer ventures, like Deribit and its futures business, can help offset the volatility in spot crypto markets.

Given the ongoing struggles in the crypto market, Coinbase’s performance in the upcoming quarter is crucial to its long-term recovery. Analysts will closely watch the earnings report for more insights into the company’s ability to adapt and navigate these challenging times.

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