Is Bitcoin Price Entering a Bear Market? Historical Data and Trends Say So

TLDR

• Bitcoin has fallen 46% from its all-time high of $126,000, raising concerns about a potential bear market.
• Despite the downturn, many analysts believe Bitcoin is still in a larger bull market cycle and undergoing a correction.
• XWIN Research argues that Bitcoin may have already entered the early stage of a bear market due to weakening investor sentiment.
• The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 14, signaling extreme fear, similar to past bear market phases.
• Capital flow data and on-chain profit data indicate ongoing selling pressure, pointing to bear market conditions.

Bitcoin price has experienced a prolonged downtrend for five consecutive months, dropping 46% from its all-time high of $126,000. Despite the downturn, many analysts continue to classify the price movement as a correction within a larger bull cycle. However, data from research firm XWIN challenges this view, suggesting Bitcoin may already be entering an early bear market phase.

Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Market Direction

Despite Bitcoin’s significant drop, many industry experts believe the market is merely undergoing a healthy correction. They view the decline as part of an ongoing bull market cycle, with the expectation that prices will eventually recover. These analysts argue that Bitcoin is still in the early stages of a larger upward trend and that the current downturn does not signal a full bear market.

However, research firm XWIN has a differing perspective. According to their analysis, the ongoing price drop signals the beginning of an early bear market phase. XWIN points to the Fear & Greed Index, currently at 14, which suggests extreme fear among investors, similar to past periods preceding major bear markets. The firm also highlights capital flow data and on-chain profit data, both indicating weakening investor sentiment and mounting selling pressure.

Bitcoin Price Dynamics and Historical Context

XWIN Research also draws comparisons to past market conditions. The firm notes that Bitcoin price decline mirrors the patterns seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. In 2024, Bitcoin saw inflows of $10 billion, expanding its market cap, but in 2025, despite $300 billion in inflows, the market cap declined. This shift suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects more than just a correction within a bull market.

Moreover, the firm observes a rise in net realized losses, which recently hit $13.6 billion. This figure aligns with the extremes seen during the 2022 bear market. XWIN’s analysis indicates that these losses, along with structural selling pressure, point to a possible bear market, even though Bitcoin remains at higher nominal price levels than during previous bear winters.

The patterns in Bitcoin’s price behavior also resemble past market downturns. Bitcoin has now experienced four consecutive months of losses, dropping 41% during this period. This trend mirrors the 2018 bear market, when similar losses were recorded.

Despite these signs, some analysts remain optimistic, predicting a bull market resurgence in the near future. For example, investor Mr. Crypto Whale forecasts a breakout in March 2026, with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $215,000 by May. However, this remains speculative as Bitcoin’s current price of $67,900 and the broader market sentiment indicate that the asset may already be transitioning into a bear market phase.

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