Bitcoin Slumps in February, Yet HODLers and Miners Signal Support

The opening weeks of February have delivered a stark diagnosis for Bitcoin’s health, with nearly 43% of its circulating supply in a state of loss and quarterly price performance standing at just under -26%, according to analyst GugaOnChain.

According to them, there is little prospect for recovery before April.

On-Chain Metrics Show Widespread Capitulation

In their latest assessment of the Bitcoin market, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain painted a grim picture for holders of the OG cryptocurrency. Per the analyst, 42.85% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater, while the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator has slumped to 21.30%, which is firmly in fear territory.

GugaOnChain’s analysis was backed by experts at XWIN Research, who noted that the recent reading of 8 on the Fear and Greed Index was one that has rarely been seen, only appearing in previous stress events, including the 2018 bear market bottom, the March 2020 COVID crash, and the FTX collapse in November 2022.

The analysts pointed out that from a behavioral finance perspective, this reflects loss aversion and herd behavior, with investors reducing risk exposure after significant losses.

Looking at the quarterly price performance, it stands at -25.8%, with GugaOnChain seeing little prospect for recovery before Q2 2026. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF flows tell a similar story of institutional exhaustion. Since the start of the month, the products have seen net outflows of $2.17 billion, with the exodus accelerating as prices tumbled toward $60,000 on February 6.

Price Action Reflects Volatility

Other recent research provides context for the conditions described above. For instance, analytics firm Santiment reported that funding rates across exchanges had turned deeply negative, meaning traders were heavily positioned for price drops.

BTC’s price movement is reflecting the tension, with data from CoinGecko showing the asset had fallen about 3% in the last seven days, 10% over two weeks, and 28% across the past month, while trading roughly 46% below its October 2025 all-time high when it went past $126,000.

The growth contraction extends beyond Bitcoin itself, with GugaOnChain’s analysis showing the broader crypto economy shrinking, as mid-cap and small-cap altcoins contracted by 18.3% while the growth rate of the top 20 assets folded by -12.48%.

However, even with prices collapsing, demand from accumulator addresses has stayed strong at 380,104 BTC over the last 30 days. Furthermore, miners appear to be holding their BTC rather than selling, with their operations supported in part by AI revenue streams.

Taken all together, the conditions described in GugaOnChain’s assessment frame the current phase as one defined by fear, defensive positioning, and selective accumulation with little broad market confidence. According to them, “the turn toward recovery now depends on investor resilience.”

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