Failure to reclaim the daily pivot keeps the focus on lower-range rotation; acceptance below the 6,842–6,827 gate would keep downside pressure in play.
S&P 500 futures remain in a defensive posture ahead of the New York session after slipping below the daily Central Pivot (CP) near 6,866 into the end of last week. The new week has opened with continued pressure following repeated failures to break the upper gate between 6,979 and 7,049, keeping the index in a lower-range rotation rather than a sustained recovery phase.
From a structure perspective, 6,866 is the decision point. As long as futures remain below it, upside pushes are more likely to behave like repair rallies than a trend reversal. The market is also approaching a familiar downside reference at 6,764, a pivot that has been stress-tested before (December 2025 and again in early February 2026). A sustained move below that level would bring the next structural support zone into focus near 6,683.
TPO structure guides the session tone
TPO shows value building below the lower gate, with POC holding under 6,842–6,827 and cumulative delta negative — unless New York can reclaim and accept back above the gate (then 6,866 CP), rotations are likely to stay heavy with 6,764 remaining the next key magnet.Into the London mid-session, futures trade around 6,823, sitting below the lower gate, with negative cumulative delta and value (POC) holding beneath the gate. That combination suggests sellers are not simply pressing price lower — it also hints that the market is attempting to build value in the lower area, which can keep the New York session pinned to a “sell-rallies” rhythm unless key reclaim levels are achieved.
A practical way to frame acceptance today is through the 6,842–6,827 lower gate:
- Acceptance below the gate would be reflected in value holding below it and repeated failed attempts to reclaim it.
- Acceptance back above the gate would require price to reclaim and hold above the band long enough for pullbacks to stop failing quickly.
Levels that matter into New York
If the market remains below the CP, the focus stays on the lower structure. The 6,842–6,827 band remains the first reclaim test. Failure to recover this area keeps downside references active at 6,815, 6,803, and 6,788, with 6,764 acting as the major pivot support.
A breach of 6,764 that fails to reclaim quickly would likely shift attention to the next support shelf near 6,683.
On the other hand, a reclaim of the CP at 6,866 would shift the posture back toward the upper structure. In that scenario, resistance references at 6,893 and 6,909 come into play first. A sustained move above that upper gate would open the door to 6,923, 6,936, and 6,952, with 6,979 remaining the key cap that must be reclaimed to challenge the prior rejection zone near 7,049.
Key levels
- Resistance: 6,893; 6,909; 6,923; 6,936; 6,952; 6,979–7,049.
- Pivot/decision point: 6,866.
- Support: 6,842–6,827; 6,815; 6,803; 6,788; 6,764; 6,683.
These desk updates document a structure-first process, observing how price accepts or rejects predefined levels over time. Coverage spans futures, commodities, forex, bonds, crypto, stocks, and indices, with structure providing context before direction. This observation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Structure defines context; price reveals response.Pivot/decision.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-futures-slip-below-6-866-pivot-as-sellers-target-6-764-support-202602171227
