Silver (XAG/USD) Price Prediction: Silver Slips Below $75 Support Ahead of FOMC Minutes, SLV Braces for Volatility

As of February 17, 2026, the silver spot price hovers near $73.06, marking a decline of around 4% on the session and extending a broader 20% monthly correction.

Despite the recent slide, the metal remains significantly higher on a year-over-year basis, underscoring the complex nature of the current silver price movement. Traders are now turning their focus to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, widely seen as the next major macro catalyst for the silver price forecast in the short term.

Silver Price Under Scrutiny Following $75 Breakdown

The break below $75 occurred during thin holiday trading in Asia, pushing the silver futures price beneath last Friday’s low. However, market participants remain cautious about declaring a confirmed bearish shift.

Silver has slipped below $75 in thin Asian holiday trading, continuing weak bullish momentum since the Lunar New Year. Source: TradingView

There have already been six failed attempts to sustain a move below $75 in recent sessions, with each dip followed by a rebound above the level. That pattern has made traders cautious about extending short positions without a decisive daily close beneath support.

From a technical analysis standpoint, momentum indicators on shorter timeframes show growing bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward neutral-to-oversold territory, while MACD readings remain negative, signaling fading upside momentum. Immediate silver support levels now sit near $72, where buyers previously stepped in, followed by the February swing low around $64.09.

On the upside, former support at $75 may now act as resistance. Beyond that, attention shifts to $78, $79.29, and $80, key silver resistance levels identified on recent charts. A break above $79.29, as highlighted in earlier analyses, could reopen the path toward $83.12, reinforcing the broader silver price outlook.

Silver Price and Fed Policy: FOMC Minutes in Focus

The near-term direction of the silver price is increasingly tied to expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy. In January, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Investors now await the detailed FOMC minutes for insight into policymakers’ thinking.

Silver (XAG/USD) was trading at around $73.30, down 4.07% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: TradingView

Recent U.S. inflation data showed headline CPI easing to 2.4% year-over-year from 2.7%, while core CPI edged down to 2.5%. In theory, softer inflation supports the case for eventual rate cuts. However, limited near-term prospects for dovish Fed policy continue to weigh on non-yielding assets, underscoring the nuanced relationship between silver and interest rates.

Silver does not generate yield. When rate-cut expectations fade or are delayed, opportunity costs rise, often pressuring precious metals. At the same time, easing inflation can revive interest in silver as a hedge against inflation and part of a broader precious metals outlook.

The upcoming minutes may clarify how policymakers view inflation persistence and growth risks. Any shift in tone could directly impact the silver price and the US dollar, a key dynamic that often shapes short-term volatility.

Broader Trend: Corrective Pullback Within a Larger Uptrend?

While the near-term tone appears cautious, the broader structure suggests consolidation rather than collapse. Analysts describe silver as being in a neutral trend, undergoing a corrective pullback within a longer-term uptrend.

Silver stays bullish this week, with $79.29 as key resistance; a break could push XAG/USD toward $83–$85, otherwise range-bound trading may continue. Source: @Mlia_CFA via X

A separate technical framework identifies a key pivot near $73.50. A sustained move below that zone would weaken the bullish case and expose deeper downside targets. Conversely, a rebound from this region could revive upside momentum toward higher resistance clusters.

This dual narrative, short-term weakness against longer-term resilience, keeps the silver price prediction this week finely balanced.

SLV Signals Mixed Momentum as ETF Traders Prepare

The iShares Silver Trust (ticker SLV) reflects similar crosscurrents. Trading around $69–$70 in mid-February, SLV remains sharply higher compared to early 2025 levels near $29, representing a gain of more than 130% over the past year.

$SLV was trading at around $65.95, down 5% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: TradingView

However, daily indicators show hesitation. Short-term moving averages (5–50 day) lean bearish, with price trading below key levels. RSI readings hover near neutral, while MACD signals remain subdued. In contrast, longer-term moving averages (100–200 day) continue to suggest an underlying constructive trend.

Key support for SLV lies between $65 and $68, a zone that could attract renewed silver ETF demand if tested. Resistance between $75 and $80 remains pivotal for confirming a sustained breakout.

For institutional and retail investors alike, ETF flows and volume trends may provide early clues about the broader silver demand outlook, particularly if volatility spikes following the FOMC release.

Silver Price Forecast: Volatility Likely After Fed Minutes

With U.S. markets reopening after an extended weekend, liquidity conditions are expected to improve, potentially amplifying price swings. The combination of a recent support break, mixed technical signals, and pending macro guidance sets the stage for heightened volatility.

Silver is in a neutral phase, showing a short-term pullback within its broader uptrend. Source: TradingView

If the $75 breakdown holds on a daily closing basis, the silver price forecast could tilt toward $72 and possibly lower. On the other hand, another failed move below support, echoing prior reversals, may revive bullish momentum toward $78–$80.

For now, the silver price outlook this month hinges on confirmation. Traders are watching whether this move marks the start of a deeper retracement or simply another shakeout within a broader upward trajectory.

As the FOMC minutes approach, the key question remains: is silver stabilizing before its next advance or preparing for further consolidation? The answer may soon emerge in the interplay between macro signals and technical structure.