WMT Price Forecast: $30B Buyback Despite 2026 Warning

Shares of Walmart Inc. traded at $129.59, up 2.35% as of writing on early morning, even as premarket activity showed pressure following its latest earnings report. The retail giant delivered solid fourth-quarter results, yet investors focused on a cautious outlook for fiscal 2026. The reaction highlights how closely markets track forward guidance, especially under new leadership.

Strong Quarter Caps Leadership Transition

Walmart reported revenue of $190.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 5.6% increase year over year. Operating income rose 10.8%, outpacing sales growth. Global e-commerce sales jumped 24%, reaching a record share of U.S. revenue. The figures exceeded analyst expectations and underscored steady demand across both physical stores and digital platforms.

Source: App Economy Insights via X

U.S. comparable sales, excluding fuel, increased 4.6%. Shoppers continued to prioritize value and convenience despite ongoing economic pressures. The company achieved broad-based growth across merchandise categories and online channels.

The results marked the first earnings report under chief executive John Furner, who succeeded longtime leader Doug McMillon on February 1. Investors now assess whether Furner can maintain Walmart’s growth trajectory as the company approaches a trillion-dollar valuation threshold.

Cautious Outlook Weighs On Sentiment

Despite a strong quarterly performance, Walmart issued guidance that fell short of market expectations. For fiscal 2026, management projected net sales growth between 3.5% and 4.5%. The company expects operating income to rise 6% to 8%. Over the years, it has been able to grow its operating income by 2.6% annually over the last 20 years. Adjusted earnings per share should range from $2.75 to $2.85, below Wall Street estimates of $2.96.

Source: Fiscal.ai via X

That conservative forecast triggered a pullback of more than 3% in premarket trading. Analysts noted that investors had anticipated stronger momentum given the retailer’s recent performance. Even so, Walmart announced a new $30 billion share-repurchase program, signaling confidence in its long-term cash flow strength.

The company also continues to expand its digital ecosystem. E-commerce growth remains a central driver, and leadership emphasized investments in automation, advertising, and membership services. While management refrained from aggressive projections, the company outlined steady operational improvements.

Performance Versus The Market

Walmart’s longer-term returns remain strong compared to the broader market. Year to date, shares have gained 16.30%, outpacing the S&P 500, which has risen 0.39%. Over one year, Walmart advanced 25.77%, more than doubling the index’s 11.85% return.

The three-year and five-year figures tell a similar story. Walmart delivered a 175.32% return over three years and 200.73% over five years, both significantly ahead of benchmark gains. These metrics reinforce its role as a defensive yet growth-oriented retail stock.

However, near-term price movement now hinges on how investors interpret the softer outlook. Markets often reward acceleration more than stability. Can Walmart sustain its momentum in a slower growth environment? That question dominates current trading sentiment.

As the world’s largest retailer, Walmart serves as a key indicator of U.S. consumer health. The latest results show resilience in spending patterns, particularly in essential goods and value categories. At the same time, management’s tempered forecast reflects ongoing economic uncertainty.

For now, strong fundamentals compete with cautious projections. Investors continue to weigh growth durability against valuation levels as the new fiscal year unfolds.