TLDR:
- Bitcoin has recovered to a new all-time high after every 40–50% correction recorded between 2014 and 2026.
- The average trough-to-cycle-high multiple across nine correction events sits at approximately 3.4 times the low.
- Recovery time within this correction range averages 9 to 14 months, far shorter than full bear market timelines.
- Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown severity has declined each cycle, dropping from 84% in 2018 to roughly 50% today.
Bitcoin’s historical price behavior shows a consistent pattern that long-term analysts have tracked for over a decade.
When the asset drops between 40% and 50% from a cycle peak, it has recovered to new all-time highs in every recorded instance since 2014.
As of February 21, 2026, Bitcoin trades near $67,707, down roughly 47–50% from its October 2025 peak of $124,700. That places the current drawdown squarely within this historically notable correction range.
What Defines a 40–50% Correction in Bitcoin’s Cycle
A 40–50% correction refers to a drawdown from a running cycle peak to its lowest trough, with the maximum decline falling between those two percentages.
The peak is measured as the running high before a new high is set. The trough marks the deepest point of the pullback before recovery begins.
According to an analysis by market commentator Adam Livingston, the dataset covers daily Bitcoin price history from 2014 through February 20, 2026.
It identifies roughly nine distinct events fitting this correction definition. Only closed events count, meaning the drawdown period ends only when a new all-time high is confirmed.
This definition deliberately excludes deeper bear market crashes, where losses exceed 70%. Those recoveries typically take much longer. The 40–50% bucket behaves differently, and the data treats it as a separate category of market behavior.
Key Data Points From Nine Historical Events
The average multiple from the correction trough to the next cycle high sits at approximately 3.4 times. The range across all events runs from roughly 1.8 times on the lower end to 5.6 times at the top. That range reflects how different each recovery can be in magnitude.
Livingston noted that even the one event that eventually rolled into a deeper bear market still produced a roughly 116% gain and reached a new all-time high just after the 365-day mark.
As he wrote, “Even the ‘bad’ one still embarrassed the skeptics.” That recovery happened despite the correction preceding an extended downturn.
Average recovery time to a prior high within this correction range runs approximately 9 to 14 months. Full bear markets, by comparison, have historically taken 24 to 36 months or longer to recover. That represents a notably faster timeline for this specific correction bucket.
The Current Setup and What History Suggests
As of February 21, 2026, Bitcoin sits around $67,707. The October 2025 peak reached $124,700, placing the current drawdown at approximately 47–50%. That range matches the textbook entry zone identified across the historical dataset.
Livingston also pointed out that Bitcoin has shown early rebound behavior, trading roughly 8% above its February 5 low.
Historically, these initial snapbacks tend to follow a period where forced selling exhausts itself and selling pressure drops. The pattern repeats across multiple cycles in the data.
Beyond the current setup, the analysis also noted that maximum drawdown severity has decreased over successive cycles. The 2018 bear market saw drawdowns near 84%.
The 2022 cycle reached around 77%. The current cycle’s largest drawdown sits near 50%, which suggests growing market depth and stronger structural demand over time.
The post Is Bitcoin Current 47–50% Drawdown the Same Pattern That Has Always Led to New All-Time Highs? appeared first on Blockonomi.
Source: https://blockonomi.com/is-bitcoins-current-47-50-drawdown-the-same-pattern-that-has-always-led-to-new-all-time-highs/
