FMCG sector growth to ease in 2026 amid weaker economic outlook

The country’s fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is expected to post slower growth in 2026 amid spillover effects from last year’s weaker economic growth, according to the outlook released by Worldpanel by Numerator on Friday.

In-home FMCG — which includes packaged food, beverages, and home and personal care products — is projected to grow by 3% to 4% in 2026, slower than the 5.2% expansion recorded in 2025.

The sector also posted a 0.9% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“So, still in a way it’s growing faster than our GDP (gross domestic product), and thus we say that actually the FMCG sector is a little bit more resilient,” Ms. Obana, shopper insights director at Worldpanel by Numerator told reporters during the presentation.

“So, many people don’t have a lot of money,” she said. “Instead of eating out or buying fresh food, they tend to buy packaged goods.”

Ms. Obana added that the projection also reflects the economic outlook of the Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, noting that the effects of last year’s slowdown, although diminishing, are expected to carry over into 2026.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that GDP expanded by 4.4% in 2025, below the 5.5%–6.5% target set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC).

GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed to 3%, a post-pandemic low, compared with the same period in 2024 and the revised 3.9% growth in the third quarter of 2025.

Mr. Balisacan earlier said the slower growth was due to adverse weather conditions that disrupted economic activity, as well as the flood-control controversy that weighed on government spending, investment, and consumer demand.

Apart from slower GDP growth, FMCG demand continues to face pressure from elevated prices of basic goods, even as headline inflation eased to 1.8% in December, Ms. Obana said.

The PSA reported that inflation edged up to 2.0% in January.

To ensure brands sustainable growth in 2026, Worldpanel identified consumer segments that posted higher spending in 2025. The analysis is based on a panel of 5,000 Filipino households whose shopping behavior is tracked to represent about 29 million households nationwide.

Among these is the “silver market,” or consumers aged 55 and above, who were found to have stronger purchasing power and to spend 10% more than those below 55.
Pet owners also present an opportunity for brands. About 67% of Filipino households own pets, while 83% of pet owners remain untapped in dog food, despite 16% growth in spending over the past 12 months.

Pet-owning households were also 1.49 times more likely to purchase cleaning products for pets than non-pet owners.

Households with overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) likewise offer growth potential, as they spend 25% more than households without an OFW, while 73% of FMCG categories show higher-spending buyers among OFW households.

Numerator also cited opportunities in personal and home care products, shopper touchpoints, and lifestyle dining segments that brands can tap.

To exceed the projected FMCG growth rate, Ms. Obana said companies need to strengthen their value proposition to consumers.

“If market conditions improve, shoppers may ease their focus on cheaper goods, but brands must show they offer better taste, nutrition, or other value so they can justify higher prices,” she said.

Worldpanel by Numerator, a US-based data and technology company, is a consumer panel that provides insights on shopper behavior to help shape the strategies of the world’s leading brands. — Edg Adrian A. Eva