Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) Stock: Drops 14% on Weak Q3 Revenue Forecast

TLDRs;

• Marvell stock dropped 12% after issuing a weak Q3 forecast, highlighting growth concerns in its core data center business.
• The chipmaker’s reliance on hyperscale customers creates volatile revenue patterns, exposing risks from shifting cloud investment cycles.
• Technical setbacks with SerDes technology may be straining ties with Microsoft and Amazon, raising execution doubts.
• Investors await Q4 recovery signals as Marvell struggles to maintain competitiveness in a booming global AI chip market.

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) shares plunged 14% in after-hours trading on Thursday, after the semiconductor firm issued a weaker-than-expected revenue outlook for the upcoming quarter.

The warning highlights ongoing concerns about the company’s reliance on data center demand and its execution in the competitive AI chip market.

The chipmaker, known for designing custom silicon for hyperscale customers such as Microsoft and Amazon, projected third-quarter revenue of around US$2.1 billion, plus or minus 5%. Analysts had forecasted a similar figure, but investors reacted to the implied softness in growth and the company’s cautious guidance.

Revenue Outlook Raises Market Concerns

For Q2, Marvell posted revenue of US$2 billion, in line with Wall Street estimates. Its data center business, by far the company’s largest segment, delivered US$1.5 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but slightly under projections.

CEO Matthew Murphy cautioned that data center revenue would remain flat in Q3 before showing improvement in the fourth quarter.

The guidance raised red flags among investors already wary of Marvell’s performance. Shares of the company are now down about 30% year-to-date, reflecting persistent doubts about whether the chipmaker can sustain growth while navigating volatility in hyperscale demand cycles.

Structural Volatility in Custom Chips

Marvell’s reliance on custom ASICs for hyperscale cloud providers has become both a strength and a weakness. While these partnerships allow the company to secure large-scale deals, the timing of deployments creates unpredictable revenue patterns.

Industry experts describe Marvell’s performance as “lumpy”, a byproduct of hyperscalers like Microsoft or Amazon shifting infrastructure investments.

Microsoft’s delay in deploying its in-house AI chips and AWS’s recent loss of cloud market share have amplified the uncertainty. With over 70% of Marvell’s revenue tied to data centers in fiscal year 2025, the company’s fortunes are heavily influenced by a small set of customers.

Technical Challenges Threaten Competitive Edge

Beyond cyclical volatility, Marvell appears to be grappling with deeper technical issues. Reports suggest that its SerDes technology, a critical component in networking and AI chip applications, has not met performance expectations.

These setbacks are reportedly causing delays and straining relationships with major clients, including Microsoft and Amazon.

This comes at a critical moment: the global AI chip market is expected to surge from US$83.8 billion in 2025 to US$459 billion by 2032. Failing to deliver cutting-edge solutions on time risks not only revenue but also long-term competitiveness. Investor sentiment reflects these concerns, with Marvell’s stock having fallen approximately 32% since January 2025.

Looking Ahead

CEO Matthew Murphy attempted to reassure investors, suggesting that Q4 could bring improvements in data center sales. However, analysts note that Marvell must demonstrate not just recovery but consistent execution to regain market confidence.

With hyperscale customers under pressure to optimize cloud spending and rivals aggressively pushing AI chip innovation, Marvell faces a dual challenge: overcoming technical hurdles while stabilizing its revenue stream.

The next two quarters may prove decisive in determining whether Marvell can rebound or lose further ground in the race for AI chip dominance.

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