3 Key Insights:
- AVAX faces repeated rejections at $26.50, keeping bearish momentum alive toward the $16 support zone.
- Weekly chart shows long consolidation, with AVAX trapped between $8.61 and $32 since mid-2022.
- Market cap under $10B leaves room for growth if altcoin cycle sparks renewed AVAX demand.
Avalanche (AVAX) is trading at $23.65, with a 24-hour volume of $613.4 million. The token has gained 0.15% in the last 24 hours but is down 7% over the past week. Technical charts show repeated resistance at $26.50, raising the possibility of a deeper move toward $16 support.
Daily Chart Shows Rejection at $26.50
The AVAX/USDT daily chart indicates that $26.50 has become a key resistance level. Price has been rejected at this point several times, with upper wicks marking failed breakouts. The most recent reversal has pulled AVAX back below $24, showing persistent selling pressure near the top of the channel.
Ali, a market analyst,
Source: Ali Martinez/XThe dotted projection on his chart outlines a path that could see AVAX test $21, then $19, before hitting the $16 lower boundary if bearish momentum continues.
Support remains around $23, which could slow the decline if buyers return. However, repeated failures at $26.50 suggest bears remain in control until a breakout occurs.
Weekly Chart Signals Prolonged Consolidation
On the weekly timeframe, AVAX continues to trade within a wide accumulation range. Since peaking near $147 in 2021, the token has struggled to break above the $32 resistance zone. Current weekly averages show the price capped under the 99-week moving average at $29.35, with shorter averages (MA7 at $24.42 and MA25 at $21.27) squeezing tightly around the present level.
Jay.eth commented,
The chart reflects this stagnation, as AVAX has mostly traded between $8.61 and $32.14 since mid-2022.
Market Structure and Long-Term Outlook
Avalanche’s current market cap is below $10 billion, far from its $30 billion peak. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) sits near $17 billion, with most tokens already in circulation aside from foundation allocations. This reduces the risk of heavy dilution compared to projects with larger upcoming unlocks.
If market conditions improve, a breakout above the $29–32 range could open the path to higher levels, with $62–93 as potential longer-term targets. On the downside, failure to hold above $20 could bring AVAX back toward its $8 support zone.
The broader accumulation base suggests that while short-term pressure is evident, AVAX remains in a structure that could support stronger moves if liquidity returns during an altcoin cycle.
| DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing. |
Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/avalanche-rejected-at-26-5/
