Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. CryptoQuant data shows short-term holder losses transferred to exchanges fell to a two-week low, contrasting with the heavier selling seen in early February.
Bitcoin short-term sellers step back
The short-term holder (STH) profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric tracks how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss. These participants tend to amplify volatility during stress events.
Bitcoin short-term holder P&L to exchanges. Source: CryptoQuantOn March 1, the realized losses fell to 3,700 BTC even as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran escalated in the Middle East. Bitcoin dipped to $63,000 during that window, but exchange inflows from this cohort did not expand in response.
For comparison, on Feb. 5–6, the STHs sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours. That marked a peak capitulation window. Since then, the loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution and exhibited “zero panic.” The drop in loss transfers signals that the sell pressure from recent buyers has cooled.
A strong rally may depend on whether realized losses stay contained or reaccelerate toward prior capitulation levels during this period of geopolitical uncertainty.
Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys $204M of Bitcoin in 101st purchase
BTC futures deleveraging meets external liquidity
BTC derivatives data indicate a significant risk reduction. Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance open interest declined to 97,680 BTC from 130,800 BTC since the start of the year, a 25% contraction.
The estimated leverage ratio, which compares open interest to exchange BTC reserves, fell to a 0.146 weekly average. Levels below 0.15 have historically aligned with aggressive deleveraging phases during this cycle.
On the technical side, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its Monthly RVWAP (rolling volume-weighted average price), currently near the high-$68,000 region. The Monthly RVWAP is a volume-weighted average price anchored to the start of the month. BTC trading above it places the average monthly participant back in profit and often shifts the short-term positioning bias of traders.
Bitcoin four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe four-hour chart shows the price pushing through $70,000 and approaching the first external liquidity pocket from $70,000 to $71,500. Converting that range into support may trigger a price expansion to the $80,000 region, where prior supply capped upside in January. Crypto trader LP said,
Bitcoin external liquidity levels. Source: XThe BTC spot flow data adds further context. Binance spot printed roughly $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase added about $1.16 million, and OKX contributed nearly $3.7 million.
The positive delta across venues signals aggressive spot bidding rather than isolated derivatives-driven activity. With leverage use reduced and loss-driven selling falling, the market’s attention shifts to how the price may react around the $71,500 liquidity band.
Bitcoin spot data flows from exchanges. Source: exitpump/XRelated: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?
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